NFL Week 11 wraps up tonight with an intriguing matchup in Las Vegas between the Cowboys and Raiders – and I’m rolling with America’s Team.

 

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

The line currently sits at three points in favor of Dallas at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, and that feels right. This Cowboys team has too much talent to let this one stay close for long. The Raiders have struggled all season to find consistency, whether it’s moving the ball, finishing drives, or simply putting points on the board. There’s just too much unpredictability with this team, and not the kind that usually wins games against a revamped defense like this.

Dallas has the offensive weapons to make this one get out of hand if they stay efficient. They can spread the field, create mismatches, and force the Raiders to play catch-up early. Once that happens, this game shifts into the Cowboys’ comfort zone: letting their pass rush tee off and their defense dictate tempo.

The Raiders’ defense has had flashes, but they haven’t shown they can hold up against an attack with this much firepower. Unless Pete delivers something unexpected, it’s hard to see a path where Las Vegas keeps pace.

Dallas should handle business here as the favorite – build a lead, stay aggressive, and close it out with authority.

The Pick: Cowboys win and cover the 3-point spread.

As NFL Week 10 comes to a close, we’ve got a heavyweight matchup under the Lambeau lights: Eagles vs. Packers.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1)

The spread on this one’s tight – just a single point – and that tells you everything about how Vegas sees it: a coin flip. Essentially a pick ’em. Green Bay has been scrappy all season, but this Eagles team? They’re built for these moments. When the lights come on and the stage gets big, Philly knows how to rise.

Now, don’t forget – these two squads saw each other in the playoffs last year, and familiarity breeds fireworks. You spend a week prepping for someone in January, you remember every wrinkle, every motion, every pressure look. These coaching staffs know each other inside and out. That makes this a football chess match. Vic Fangio’s defense versus Matt LaFleur’s creativity – it’s going to be a beautiful battle of adjustments.

For the Packers, the big question is whether Jordan Love can stay upright and efficient against this Philly pass rush. They’ll miss Tucker Kraft, his safety valve in the short game, and that means Josh Jacobs has to carry more of the load. I expect him to be heavily involved early – both to slow down the rush and to test the Eagles’ front seven’s discipline.

On the other side, you’ve got Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown, one of the most dangerous duos in football. Hurts has that steady heartbeat – he’s not going to get rattled in Lambeau, no matter the weather. And with DeVonta Smith heating up, that’s a problem. We like Smith for an anytime touchdown bet here; Hurts trusts him on those leverage routes and red zone fades.

If Green Bay can force a turnover or two – maybe get a strip sack or short field – they can absolutely steal this one. But the safer play? Ride with the veteran squad that knows how to win close games.

The Pick: Eagles win and cover. 27-20.

Thursday Night Football is coming up, and this week we’ve got the Raiders taking on the Broncos—a matchup that, on paper, looks a little lopsided. Our friends at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook have the Broncos favored by nine, and honestly, that number feels legitimate.

Let’s be real

The Raiders have struggled mightily this season. It’s been tough sledding all year, and the issues go deeper than the record. They’ve battled inconsistency, turnover problems, and a lack of rhythm on offense. My guy Geno Smith—who’s been up and down—has had a tough time protecting the ball, throwing too many interceptions early on. But last week, he seemed to rediscover his groove, tossing four touchdowns with Brock Bowers back in the lineup. That connection could be the one bright spot in an otherwise dim offensive picture.

Still, the roster moves haven’t helped. The Raiders just traded Jakobi Meyers—a talented receiver but an unhappy one—to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a fourth and sixth-round pick. The cupboard’s bare, and when you’re heading into Denver without many weapons, that’s a recipe for trouble.

Because this Broncos defense? It’s no joke. Riley Moss, Talanoa Hufanga, Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, and Zach Allen—these guys bring pressure from everywhere. They fly around, they play disciplined football, and they’ll make life miserable for a quarterback who doesn’t have much help around him. That front seven can absolutely take over games, and I expect them to do just that.

The Raiders are sitting at 2–6 and are the underdog for a reason, and while I feel bad for my guy Pete, it’s hard to see this one going their way. The Broncos have momentum, they’ve got the better defense, and they’re playing with confidence.

My TNF pick

I’m rolling with Denver to cover that nine-point spread. But hey—you never know in the NFL. That’s why they play the game.

Another week down, and now we’ve got a big one under the lights on Monday night: Chiefs vs. Commanders. Let’s talk about it.

Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5)

Kansas City comes into this game as 11.5-point favorites, which, I’ll be honest, is a massive number in the NFL. Anytime you start talking double digits, you’re in dangerous territory. That’s tough to cover, no matter who you’re playing.

Now, I get it, Jayden Daniels isn’t playing. That changes the whole dynamic for Washington. They’re rolling out Marcus Mariota, and when you lose your young QB who’s been showing promise, that’s a blow. Vegas knows it, too. That’s why this line ballooned like it did.

But here’s the thing: 11.5 is still huge. You’ve got to basically dominate from start to finish to cash that ticket. If the Commanders are down Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin, which is still up in the air, then yeah, I could see Patrick Mahomes and those boys running away with it. But if those guys suit up, that’s too much juice for me.

You just don’t see teams cover numbers like that very often. The Chiefs are the better squad – that’s not a debate – but “better” doesn’t always mean “cover.”

The Pick: Chiefs win the game, but that 11.5? I’m not touching it.

Another week of NFL action is in the books, and as we head into a Monday night doubleheader, there’s plenty to talk about. Two games, two different stories, and a lot on the line for teams trying to prove who they really are.

Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks (-3)

Let’s start with the Seahawks. They’re heading into a matchup against the Houston Texans favored by three points and honestly, I see no reason they shouldn’t cover the spread. JSN is coming into his own as one of the best young receivers in the league. Sam Darnold is playing the best football of his career, and when you’ve got a D-line full of hunters? You’re in business.

The key for Seattle is execution. Can they handle the noise at home? Can they capitalize on the energy of that 12th Man and make Lumen Field the fortress it’s supposed to be? There’s no time like the present. If they’re serious about making a Super Bowl run, this is where it starts.

• The pick: Seattle -3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions

Now, over in Detroit, things get even more interesting. The Lions are 5.5-point favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and my guy Mitchell wants me to give them some love. But look — I’ve got Tampa Bay sitting at number one in my power rankings for a reason. You can’t overlook what that defense has done or how they’ve been grinding out wins.

Yes, the Lions are strong. Yes, Ford Field is going to be rocking. But let’s not forget that strugglefest they had against the Chiefs. If Tampa’s offense is clicking — with Mike Evans finally back and healthy, and that young core hungry — the Bucs are going to make this a game. Don’t be surprised if they walk out of Detroit with a win.

• The pick: Tampa +5.5

That said, if the Lions do pull it off, they’ll have earned every bit of that victory. Beat the top dog, and you deserve a shot at the number-one spot yourself.

We’ve got two Monday night games this week — Bills vs. Falcons and Bears vs. Commanders — and both have a little more drama than the lines might suggest. All NFL odds and lines come courtesy of our partners at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, and I’m breaking down how I see it going down.

Bills (-4.5) at Falcons: A Bounce-Back Game in the Making

Look, I can see the Bills covering the spread here (-4.5 points). I know some people are hesitant after how they struggled last week, but I see this as a rebound spot.

The Falcons’ defense has been spotty — they’ll look disciplined for stretches and then give up a couple big plays that flip the game. Buffalo’s got too much firepower and too much pride to let two flat weeks stack up. This is a veteran football team that knows how to respond when the noise gets loud.

Josh Allen’s heard the criticism. That offense has been inconsistent, and they know it. But this is one of those “reset” games where they come out focused, efficient, and ready to remind everyone they’re still a top-tier AFC team.

I’ve been in those locker rooms after a tough loss — everybody’s sharper, everybody’s dialed in. That’s what I expect to see from Buffalo. Bills cover.

Commanders (-4.5) vs. Bears: Too Many Unknowns

Now this one’s trickier — Commanders giving four and a half to the Bears. Normally, I’d like Washington at home in a spot like this, but I just can’t say that confidently right now.

They’re banged up. Terry McLaurin’s dealing with injuries, and that offense looks completely different when he’s not 100%. There’s also uncertainty around Debo Samuel’s status, which adds another layer if he’s limited or out.

Chicago’s got their own issues — new system, young quarterback, inconsistent execution — but when you’ve got injuries on one side and a desperate team on the other, that line feels heavy.

I’m not sure I’ve got the Commanders covering this one. They could win outright, sure, but it might be tighter than people expect. I’ll take the Bears to keep it close as the underdog.

Anytime TD Picks: Coleman and My Stanford Guy

If you’re looking for some prop action, my anytime touchdown picks this week are Keon Coleman and Zach Ertz — my Stanford guy. I like both of them to find the end zone. Coleman’s been building chemistry and confidence, and Zach’s been doing what Stanford guys do — making smart, impactful plays when it matters most.

Final Word

It’s Monday night — two games, two chances to make a statement. Let’s see who steps up.

Monday Night Football gives us a good one: the Kansas City Chiefs heading to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. Both teams have talent, but when you look at the matchups, experience, and where each team is trending, Kansas City feels like the sharper side. Here are the three bets I like for this game and why.

Chris Jones Over 0.5 Sacks

They’re only hanging a half sack prop on Chris Jones? I’ll take that every time. Trevor Lawrence isn’t moving anywhere — he’s not escaping a lot of pressure, and Kansas City’s defensive front is heating up. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is built to exploit protection weaknesses, and Jones is too good to stay quiet in this spot. Expect him to win his one-on-ones and finish at least once.

• Pick: Chris Jones Over 0.5 Sacks.

Patrick Mahomes Over 299.5 Passing Yards

Jacksonville’s defense is opportunistic — they’re great at creating turnovers and getting off the field — but they can still give up chunk plays to elite quarterbacks. Now that Xavier Worthy is back healthy, and with Tyquan Thornton stretching the field alongside Travis Kelce working the middle, this Chiefs offense is starting to open up again.

Mahomes is finding his rhythm. He knows he’s got to put this team on his back more often this year. Jacksonville will move the ball some — Travis Etienne can run, and Brian Thomas Jr. gives them some playmaking — which means Mahomes will have to keep pushing it. That adds up to a big night through the air.

• Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 299.5 Passing Yards.

Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown

When Kansas City gets inside the five, they’re not running a “tush push.” They’re putting Kareem Hunt in and letting him finish. He’s their hammer near the goal line, and he’s built for those tight-space situations. If I’m picking one player to score a touchdown in this game, it’s Hunt.

• Pick: Kareem Hunt Anytime TD.

Chiefs -3.5

Hard Rock Bet has the spread at Kansas City -3.5, and that feels a little light. Jacksonville is 3-1 and a home underdog, but this isn’t last year’s version of the team — they’ve been inconsistent, and Lawrence hasn’t taken that next step. Kansas City, meanwhile, is rediscovering its identity. The defense under Spags is nasty again, Jones is locked in, and Trent McDuffie continues to play at a high level.

I like the Chiefs to win by at least a touchdown. Expect a game that’s physical, maybe even ugly at times, but one where Kansas City’s experience and execution pull away late.

• Pick: Chiefs -3.5 (Win by 7)

Kansas City’s dynasty DNA still shows up when it counts. Monday night will be another reminder that while the rest of the NFL is trying to figure things out, the Chiefs still know exactly who they are.

All odds and lines are presented by our partners at Hard Rock Bet.