If you survived Sunday’s NFL slate with your bankroll – and blood pressure – intact, congratulations. For bettors, this week was a masterclass in volatility. Blown leads, coaching mistakes, and a few heroic covers kept everyone on tilt.

We wrapped up Week 11 going 3-2 on our five favorite bets, equal parts proud and scarred. Let’s break down the carnage.

Browns Bring the Pain (and the Cover)

Let’s start with a win that aged us all ten years: Cleveland +8.5. It wasn’t pretty – it was trench warfare. The Browns’ offense barely qualified as sentient, but Myles Garrett was a one-man demolition crew. Four sacks, endless havoc, and a defense that kept Lamar Jackson guessing all afternoon.

When Dillon Gabriel left with an injury, backup Shedeur Sanders came in and reminded the world that “backup” isn’t just a title – it’s a warning. Still, Cleveland’s defense held firm, and the hook was never in doubt. The Browns are flawed, battered, and completely unwatchable – but for bettors, they’re beautiful.

Bryce Young Rises from the Ashes

If there was ever a “don’t overthink it” game, it was Carolina +3.5 at Atlanta. The line movement scared everyone, but it shouldn’t have. Young threw for nearly 450 yards and outscored the Falcons 23-6 from the final two minutes of the first half through overtime.

This was Bryce’s “I’m him” moment: guts, grit, and pinpoint passing under fire. Carolina’s defense made key halftime adjustments, bottled up Bijan Robinson, and proved that even a team in rebuild mode can dominate when coached with purpose (and blessed with a quarterback who refuses to die).

The Falcons? Five straight losses. Raheem Morris is now officially coaching on borrowed time.

Stafford and the Hook of Doom

Then came the Rams. The Brass Balls Bet of the Week turned into a Brass Knuckles beating. Four interceptions from Sam Darnold (yes, four) should’ve meant a comfortable win. Instead, Sean McVay coached like a man allergic to risk. Conservative play-calling, wasted turnovers, and a defense that ran out of gas gave Seattle life.

When the Seahawks finally scored their first touchdown – with two minutes left – every Rams backer across America felt the same thing: the sting of the backdoor. Sometimes you die by the hook, and this week, it was a slow death.

Texans Escape, Barely

The Houston Texans should’ve coasted. They dominated statistically, controlled the clock, and made Tennessee look helpless… right up until they didn’t. A 95-yard, penalty-aided Titans drive nearly flipped the game, and bettors everywhere aged in dog years watching it unfold.

Cam Ward looked lifeless for three quarters before engineering a miracle that turned into a nightmare for Houston -4.5 backers. They won, yes – but it was a moral loss. As Chad put it, “Shame on you, Texans. You’re supposed to be elite.” They remain elite… in causing heart attacks.

The Bills’ Drunken Shootout

Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay was the kind of game that makes you question your life choices. Nine lead changes. A total that closed five points too low. Josh Allen played like a man possessed – three passing and three rushing touchdowns – while Baker Mayfield did everything humanly possible to stay close.

Then, with five minutes left, the Bills flipped a one-point deficit into a double-digit cover. A dagger for Bucs bettors, and the kind of game that defines both franchises: Buffalo exhilarating and erratic, Tampa tough but doomed.

Broncos Break the Kingdom

Patrick Mahomes is human after all. Denver’s defense smothered him, Sean Payton out-schemed him, and Bo Nix – yes, that Bo Nix – finally made the throws we’ve all been waiting for. Denver now controls its own division destiny.

It was gritty, physical football – the kind that breaks betting models and hearts. Simon nailed it: “When a line feels wrong, trust your gut.” The Broncos weren’t just live underdogs; they were barking all afternoon.

Caleb Keeps Cooking

Another cardiac finish, another win, and another week of wondering if Caleb Williams might actually be turning the Bears into contenders. JJ McCarthy, meanwhile, looks like a man reading the wrong playbook. The Vikings are falling apart, the Bears are somehow 7-3, and the NFC North just got messy.

Early Week 12 Leans

A few games have already caught our attention as we head into Week 12:

• Panthers +7 at 49ers: Overreaction city. The Niners’ defense is paper-thin, and Bryce is hot.
• Bucs +6.5 at Rams: We’ve seen this movie before: Baker in a bounce-back spot against a soft secondary.
• Lions -10.5 vs. Giants: It’s a huge number, but this is a big bounce-back opportunity off a loss.
• Colts +3.5 vs. Chiefs: Jonathan Taylor vs. a run defense made of wet cardboard.
• Seahawks -12.5 at Titans: The definition of “bad matchup” for Tennessee.

Don’t chase last week’s results. Momentum in the NFL lasts as long as a commercial break.

Somehow, we’re already staring down NFL Week 11 – and it feels like the season’s moving at warp speed. The games mean more, lines are getting sharper, and every Sunday feels heavier.

We say it every year: football season goes by way too fast.

Sharp Calls

This week’s Sharp Calls began with a twist – respected pros pounding the table for the Rams. Early in the week, we leaned Seattle, but the more we heard, the more the evidence lined up for Los Angeles. That’s now our Brass Balls Bet of the Week – and we’re proud of it.

Elsewhere, the calls came in heavy on Carolina and Buffalo. The Panthers, the pros argue, are catching too many points against an exhausted Falcons team. The Bills, meanwhile, are supposedly “due” for a Josh Allen bounce-back performance. That may be true, however, Simon still leans Tampa Bay – but with Baker Mayfield hobbling and the Bucs’ offense out of sync, he’ll be watching and waiting before making that commitment.

Bengals (+5) at Steelers

Quiet line, loud opinion. We grabbed Cincinnati early at +5.5 – and we’re glad we did. Joe Flacco looks poised, the Bengals’ receiving corps is elite, and Pittsburgh’s secondary has become a liability. We know Mike Tomlin thrives as an underdog, but as a home favorite after a loss? History says fade him.

The Steelers’ offense isn’t healthy, the defense is worn down, and Flacco’s lifetime 9-4 ATS record versus Tomlin gives us confidence. Not our heaviest play, but it’s a solid position with a key number intact.

Texans (-6.5) at Titans

We were patient, waiting for this number to drop below seven, and it finally did. Even with Davis Mills likely under center, Houston’s defense should dominate. The Titans can’t score, can’t protect the quarterback, and can’t stop anyone on the ground.

Yes, sharp money hit Tennessee when CJ Stroud missed practice, but that’s noise. Houston’s defensive front can cover this number almost single-handedly. Cautious play, not a contest lock – but we’re holding it.

Packers (-7) at Giants

Jameis Winston’s back under center, and he’s somehow become a mix of quarterback, stand-up comic, and Broadway performer. His “Hamilton” press-conference cameo was legendary – but that doesn’t make him a bet.

The Packers haven’t covered as a touchdown favorite all season, and the public’s all over the Giants. Green Bay’s defense should make Jameis’ improvisation act a short one. We’ll pass on the emotion – and the turnover roulette – this week.

Buccaneers (+5.5) at Bills

Have we leaned too far into Baker Ball? Maybe. Without Bucky Irving, Tampa’s run game – and its entire play-action identity – has evaporated. Add in a possible knee issue for Baker, and the magic’s gone.

Allen is 13-6 ATS in his career after scoring 16 or fewer points the week prior, and Buffalo’s in classic rebound territory. We still love Baker as a dog, but this week, something feels off. If new injury info drops, we’ll reassess. Until then, it’s a stay-away.

Jaguars (+2.5) vs Chargers

Every instinct screams fade the Chargers, but Trevor Lawrence’s recent play makes that tough. The Jags’ defense is coming off an emotional collapse, and that’s rarely a buy signal. Still, we like the setup at +3 if you can get it – not a conviction pick, but a valuable lean.

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Rams (-3) vs Seahawks

We’re standing tall on this one. McVay versus Seattle has been a goldmine: 11-2 ATS since 2019. Stafford’s 5-0 straight up in the matchup, and the Rams’ discipline (zero penalties last week) shows how in-sync they are right now.

Seattle’s weakness defending tight ends lines up perfectly with the Rams’ heavy multi-TE usage. The public loves the Seahawks. The professionals love the Rams. So do we. Rams -3 is our Brass Balls Bet of the Week.

Cardinals (+3) vs 49ers

Jacoby Brissett’s steadiness gives Arizona life. Even without Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride’s emergence keeps this offense balanced. San Francisco’s pass rush has cooled, and defensively, they’re softer up the middle.

The number alone makes Arizona worth a play. It’s a gross bet, but that makes it sharp.

Chad’s Choice: Browns (+7.5) vs Ravens

We hit +8.5 early, but still love the Browns above seven. Cleveland’s defense is ferocious at home, allowing 30% fewer points and rushing yards than on the road. If Lamar’s knee really is barking, this could be ugly.

Myles Garrett is the great equalizer, and the dog pound will be loud. The pros are in agreement: Browns or bust.

Broncos (+3.5) vs Chiefs

We wanted to make this Simon Says this week, but couldn’t quite get there. Denver’s defense has quietly been one of the league’s best since midseason, and Sean Payton teams usually bounce back after ugly offensive showings. Still, Mahomes off a bye is a dangerous fade. We’ll lean Broncos +3.5, but lightly.

Eagles (-2.5) vs Lions (Sunday Night Football)

The public loves Detroit, but this is exactly where Philly thrives – under a cloud of drama. Jalen Hurts looks composed, the defensive line is deep again, and Nick Sirianni somehow keeps winning.

Goff indoors? Dangerous. Outdoors, on back-to-back road games? Not so much. We’ll take the more proven team at home.

Raiders (+3.5) vs Cowboys (Monday Night Football)

This one’s not for the faint of heart. The pros want nothing to do with it, but we can’t shake the feeling the number’s too high. Dallas has struggled all year as a big favorite, and the Raiders’ pass rush – led by a fired-up Maxx Crosby – can keep this close. It’s ugly, uncomfortable, and exactly the kind of side that usually covers.

Panthers (+3.5) at Falcons

Sharp money pounced on Carolina for good reason. Atlanta’s coming off an overtime game overseas – a scheduling death sentence – and their offense remains a mystery. The Panthers are ugly, yes, but motivated. Ugly dogs cover. Carolina makes the card.

Sharp or Square Picks: Week 11

Our shortlist heading into the weekend:

• Rams -3 vs Seahawks (Brass Balls Bet)
• Browns +7.5 vs Ravens (Chad’s Choice)
• Bengals +5 at Steelers
• Texans -6.5 at Titans
• Panthers +3.5 vs Falcons
• Cardinals +3 vs 49ers
• Eagles -2.5 vs Lions
• Raiders +3.5 vs Cowboys

We went 3-2 with our five favorite picks last week – good, not great, but steady. Thanks to Simon, our Sunday morning conversation led us to pull the Niners and put in the Eagles, a move that helped us avoid back-to-back losing weeks. The lesson? Early-week positions aren’t sacred. Information changes. Injury reports, weather, and line movement all matter.

Jets (+11.5) at Patriots (Thursday Night Football)

Yes, it’s gross. Yes, you’ll hate yourself for watching. But this number’s out of control. New England’s the better team right now, but Thursday night games lean toward chaos and inflated favorites get punished on short weeks.

This one definitely won’t be in our final five, but it’s the definition of a letdown/trap spot.

Bengals (+4.5) at Steelers

This one almost became Chad’s Choice. We both thought the number was wrong – why isn’t this three? I grabbed Cincinnati at +5.5, betting that Joe Flacco and the Bengals’ receivers could torch a shaky Steelers secondary that survives on turnover luck. The line has since dropped to +4.5, which told us the sharps agreed. Two flawed teams, but Cincinnati feels like the right side.

Texans (-7) at Titans

Assuming C.J. Stroud clears protocol, this is a mismatch. Houston crushed Tennessee earlier in the season, and the Titans haven’t found a pulse since.

The Texans can run the ball, and Tennessee can’t stop it. If Jeffery Simmons remains out, it could get ugly – again.

Packers (-7.5) at Giants

Brian Daboll’s gone, and New York’s officially in teardown mode. The Giants can’t stop the run either, and Green Bay can lean on Josh Jacobs to pound them into submission.

The Packers aren’t elite, but they’re good enough to exploit a defense that ranks near dead last against the rush. Big number or not, this is the right side.

Buccaneers (+5.5) at Bills

This line makes no sense. Tampa’s loss last week was ugly, but two fluke runs accounted for most of New England’s rushing yardage.

Baker Mayfield’s missing weapons, but Buffalo’s defense is still reeling from injuries. The Bills are overvalued on name alone – take the points with a gritty Bucs team that plays better than it looks on paper.

Jaguars (+3) vs Chargers

We’ve been here before: the Chargers win, look competent, and sucker us into trusting them. Then they fall flat. Not this time.

Jacksonville’s defense can force Herbert into bad spots, and Trevor Lawrence plays his best football at home.

Ugly? Sure. But ugly wins.

Seahawks (+2.5) at Rams

Seattle’s defense is legit, and they can pressure Stafford right up the middle – his kryptonite. The Rams’ offense is explosive, but their protection’s shaky.

This line dropped from 3 to 2.5, but if it bounces back to a field goal, Seattle’s the sharp side.

Cardinals (+2.5) vs 49ers

The 49ers’ injuries keep piling up, and divisional underdogs with heart are always dangerous. Arizona got embarrassed last week but quietly outplayed Seattle after the early turnovers.

This is a bounce-back, undervalued spot for a team that fights to the final whistle.

Chad’s Choice: Browns (+8) vs Ravens

Baltimore’s been rolling, and the public loves them – which is why it’s time to fade them. The Browns’ defense is a monster at home, and this number’s simply too high.

Dillon Gabriel might not light up the scoreboard, but Cleveland can muck this game up and make Lamar Jackson earn every yard. It’s a divisional slugfest, and 8+ points is too rich to ignore.

Simon Says: Raiders (+3.5) vs Cowboys

Dallas can roll anyone – except when they’re supposed to. The Raiders are still fighting hard for Pete Carroll, and while they looked flat on offense last week, this is a spot that screams letdown for the Cowboys.

Every time Dallas is favored by more than a field goal on the road, they fall short. The Raiders have Brock Bowers back and now he gets to face a Dallas defense that can’t stop tight ends over the middle. Expect a high-effort, gritty cover in Vegas.

Eagles (-2) vs Lions (Sunday Night Football)

Detroit’s everyone’s darling – and that’s exactly when you fade them. Philly’s offense may look messy, but they win tight games and control the trenches.

Jalen Hurts remains calm through it all, and that’s what matters in primetime. The Eagles’ newly-formed defensive line should rattle Jared Goff just enough to cover a short spread.

Sharp or Square Picks for Week 11

Simon Says: Raiders +3.5
Chad’s Choice: Browns +8
Additional Leans: Bengals +5.5, Texans -7, Seahawks +2.5, Buccaneers +5.5, Cardinals +3, Broncos +3.5, Eagles -2

Final Thoughts

The deeper we go into November, the uglier the board gets. Week 11 is all about patience, discomfort, and discipline. Bet the numbers, not the logos – and remember: the sharpest bets rarely feel safe when you make them.

If you watched any football at all this weekend, you might still be trying to process what happened. For bettors, the madness started early and didn’t stop until late Sunday night. By the time the dust settled, we were 2-2 heading into Monday, equal parts relieved and exasperated. The board was littered with bad beats, brilliant coaching, and questionable quarterback play. Let’s get into it.

Baltimore Shows Why Patience Pays

We’ll start where we got it right: Baltimore. We backed the Ravens at -3.5 because, as we’ve been saying for weeks, JJ McCarthy isn’t ready to lead a team through adversity. His early touchdown drive looked sharp, but once the adrenaline wore off, he became the player we expected – hesitant, inaccurate, and rattled by Baltimore’s pressure. Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, reminded everyone why experience matters. He started slow, found his rhythm, and eventually dismantled a Vikings team that committed eight false starts – at home. That’s not nerves; that’s a team getting bullied.

The Ravens’ win wasn’t pretty, but it validated what we preach every week: trust the fundamentals. McCarthy’s hype was inflated. Baltimore’s defense was real.

Vrabel’s Masterclass

Our worst read came in Tampa Bay. The line didn’t move all week, and every sharp voice in the room was waving red flags. We ignored them. That’s on us.

What unfolded was a Mike Vrabel clinic in coaching composure and clock management. Facing Tampa’s veteran defense, rookie Drake Maye played like a young Carson Wentz – reckless but electric. He made just enough big throws to remind you why he’s special, including a dart in the end zone that broke the game open. The real star, though, was running back TreyVeon Henderson, who ripped off a 69-yard touchdown run so fast he had time to look at the sideline mid-sprint and ask whether he should score or slide.

That moment said it all: New England is disciplined, confident, and terrifyingly efficient. Tampa, meanwhile, looked lost schematically. Todd Bowles’ defense – once a strength – was gashed repeatedly by a rookie running back who’d been silent most of the season.

The Dolphins Dream Spot

If you listened last week, you heard Simon pounding the table for Miami +9.5. He saw something that most bettors missed: a perfect situational spot.

The Dolphins didn’t need Tua to win; they needed to run. Devon Achane responded with 174 rushing yards and made Buffalo’s defense look like they were in slow motion. Tua only threw 21 passes all game because he didn’t have to. Every time Josh Allen looked poised to rally, he found new ways to implode: redzone picks, missed reads, bizarre fumbles. It was the same pattern we’ve seen all season: flashes of brilliance from Allen surrounded by long stretches of dysfunction.

Miami, on the other hand, looked like a team that knows exactly who it is at home. The win wasn’t fluky – it was a statement. And yes, Simon gets his flowers for that one.

Arizona, the Lost Cause

Then there were the Cardinals. We loved them at +6.5. We shouldn’t have. When you’re down 21-0 in the first quarter, your bet is already dead. Jacoby Brissett looked immobile, the offensive line forgot its job description, and Seattle’s defense turned into a touchdown factory. It happens – but it’s painful when you can spot the loss before halftime. Some games deserve a postmortem; this one deserves a burial.

The Ones That Got Away

We also had games that made us look smart… and stubborn. We talked all week about the Texans and the Jets – two ugly, undervalued underdogs that fit our model of “betting on discomfort.” Both won outright. We didn’t put them in the final five. That’s what stings. Houston, especially, was a roller coaster: down 29-10, then ripping off 26 fourth-quarter points to stun Jacksonville. It was classic Jags – everything fine until suddenly it wasn’t.

And how about those Jets? We said it wasn’t a bet on them, but a bet against Dillon Gabriel. We were right. They won despite Justin Fields completing only six passes. Sometimes that’s enough when your special teams score twice and the opponent collapses.

The Stafford Renaissance

Before we sign off, we have to tip our caps to Matthew Stafford. Four touchdowns, zero picks, and total control against a 49ers defense that looked shell-shocked. At 37, he’s playing the best football of his career – commanding, calm, unbothered. There’s a reason he’s creeping into MVP contention. We said before the season that if the Rams stayed healthy, they’d be dangerous. Right now, they’re terrifying.

Sharp or Square Picks: Early Week 11 Leans

We head into next week with our eyes on some juicy dogs: Cleveland +8.5 against Baltimore, Jaguars +1.5, Broncos +3.5, Arizona +3 if you can stomach it, and maybe even the Commanders in Madrid. The lesson from this weekend is simple: don’t overreact to blowouts. Momentum in the NFL lasts about as long as a field goal attempt.

We’ll take our 2-2 record, hope the Eagles close it out on Monday night, and move on. Betting isn’t about perfection; it’s about surviving variance with sanity intact. And after a Sunday like that, sanity feels like the biggest win of all.

It’s Week 10 in the NFL, and the board is a wild one. Trade deadline moves have shaken the market, lines are swinging wildly, and sharp money is showing up in some surprising places. Every Thursday, we break it all down: where the pros are leaning, which numbers still hold value, and which teams are being overhyped by the public.

Sharp Calls

This week’s Sharp Calls started with surprise: heavy professional money coming in on the Chargers. We get it – Justin Herbert shines in night games and the market loves his arm – but that line feels inflated. Losing Joe Alt on the offensive line and facing a Steelers defense that thrives in grind-it-out games? We’d lean Pittsburgh.

Then there’s the Patriots-Buccaneers matchup. We liked the Bucs at -2.5 and thought this number would climb, yet its resistance tells us the market expects a close game. Still, we’re sticking with Tampa Bay, who is not only coming into this one rested off its bye week, but also should be getting several key players back from injury.

Broncos (-9.5) vs Raiders

We’re both riding with the Broncos. The wise guys may think it’s too many points in a divisional game on a short week, but that defense can suffocate a one-dimensional Raiders offense fresh off an overtime loss to Jacksonville. 

We can’t start the week 0-1, so we need this one. As our old friend Bob Scucci would say, we need this one for our lungs – we are currently underwater.

Giants (+4) at Bears

A lot of pros came in on Chicago this week, which stunned us. The Giants look like the right side: the Bears’ pass defense leaks yardage and most of their wins have come through turnover luck. But weather could tilt things – if snow or rain hit Soldier Field, Chicago’s run-heavy scheme gives them a major advantage. We’ll be patient, watch the forecasts, and maybe even grab the total (under 46.5) before kickoff.

Jets (+2) vs Browns

The Jets traded away two defensive stars in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams on Tuesday, yet sharp money moved toward them once this number hit +2.5. It’s less about faith in the Jets as it is distrust of Dillon Gabriel and the Browns’ offense.

Yes, New York’s front office has waved the white flag, but the players on the field are still auditioning for next year and should continue to play hard. We like New York in this one.

Texans (+1) vs Jaguars

We told listeners to wait until Houston became an underdog against Jacksonville and that patience was rewarded. We’re not running to back Davis Mills, but with a week to prepare, he’s competent enough to complement a defense that keeps games close. The line climbing toward +2 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook tells us the public can’t quit the Jags – we’ll happily take the value on Houston.

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Cardinals (+6.5) at Seahawks

Our Brass Balls Bet of the Week is the Arizona Cardinals +6.5 at Seattle. Jonathan Gannon’s decision to bench Kyler Murray for Jacoby Brissett looks gutsy, but the locker room has clearly responded to Brissett’s steadiness. The public can’t seem to shake off Seattle, yet the Seahawks’ home-field advantage is long gone. Since 2021, teams traveling to Seattle on a short week are 7-1 straight up and against the spread. We love this one at +6.5.

49ers (+4) vs Rams

This is the divisional chess match of the week: Shanahan vs. McVay. Every year, the numbers tell the same story: McVay just can’t solve this one on the road. He’s 1-7 SU and ATS in San Francisco.

The 49ers, even with injuries, hold the schematic edge. Their front seven can dictate tempo, and Mac Jones doesn’t have to be great – he just has to be on time. San Francisco tends to stumble after big wins, but this line’s too large to ignore.

Dolphins (+9) vs Bills

Every week feels like buy-low time on the Dolphins, and this might be the best spot yet. In back-to-back home games, Tua Tagovailoa is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS following a blowout loss. When he’s an underdog in this spot, he’s 3-0 both SU and ATS. Josh Allen, meanwhile, is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite of more than 7.5 points in his career. The Bills are banged up, James Cook’s status uncertain, and the Miami heat still matters in November. It’s a classic contrarian play: nobody wants them, so we do. Miami +9 is in the mix for our final five.

Sharp or Square Picks: Week 10

Our short list heading into the weekend:

• Broncos -9.5 vs Raiders
• Buccaneers -2.5 vs Patriots
• Jets +2 vs Browns
• Texans +1 vs Jaguars
• Cardinals +6.5 at Seahawks (Brass Balls)
• 49ers +4 vs Rams
• Dolphins +9 vs Bills

The season’s flying by – the clocks have turned, the air’s colder, and the football actually matters now. As we hit Week 10, we’re shaking off last week’s worst showing of the year (1-4, thanks for asking) and trying to find value without overcorrecting. Favorites buried us last week, so we’re hunting edges and redemption.

Below are our early leans, gut calls, and sharp angles for every matchup on the board: the games we’ve been sweating, studying, and sometimes eating midnight pasta over.

Simon Says: Broncos (-8.5) vs Raiders

This is a classic get-right spot for Denver. The Raiders come in after an overtime war and could be in full sell mode by kickoff. Short-week divisional underdogs usually tempt us, but not this time – the Broncos’ defense should dominate, and the matchup screams blowout.

Falcons (+5) vs Colts (Berlin, Germany)

Atlanta was 1-for-10 on third downs last week, but Drake London changed their whole offense. Michael Penix Jr. is still too inconsistent to trust, but the Falcons’ defense plays opportunistically enough to keep this neutral-site game close. At six or better, we’d take Atlanta.

Dolphins (+9.5) vs Bills

Every sharp bone in our bodies says to take Miami, even if we don’t want to. The Bills can’t stop the run, and this is an Achane showcase spot. The number’s inflated, and the Dolphins off extra rest should hang around long enough to cover.

Giants (+3.5) at Bears

The Bears’ defense keeps making average quarterbacks look elite, and this feels like another setup for that. Jaxson Dart can exploit soft coverage underneath, and his mobility gives them a path. With the hook, the G-Men have the edge here.

Panthers (-5) vs Saints

We’ve moved from the “Love the Saints” phase to the “Love the Panthers” phase of the season. Carolina runs the ball better, plays tougher at home, and Bryce Young’s growing into a gamer. Unless the number climbs above five, this one leans Carolina.

Jets (-1.5) vs Browns

Grab this before it moves. The Browns’ offense is hopeless without a quarterback, and their defense isn’t the same away from home. The Jets’ speed on turf creates just enough explosive play potential to tilt the matchup.

Texans (-1) vs Jaguars

It’s tough backing a team with a backup QB, but it’s even tougher trusting Trevor Lawrence on the road off a big win. Houston’s defense forces turnovers and stays in every game. If the Texans flip to a home underdog, we’re buyers.

Chad’s Choice: Buccaneers (-2.5) vs Patriots

This line is short, and we love it. Baker Mayfield was Drake May before Drake Maye – the surprising MVP dark horse nobody saw coming. Tampa’s healthier, rested, and a step up in class for New England. This is a perfect home favorite bounce-back spot.

Ravens (-4) at Vikings

Lamar Jackson owns NFC defenses, and the Vikings’ blitz-heavy scheme is tailor-made for him to torch. Baltimore’s defense is rounding into form again, and this number should climb. The early three was a gift; even at four, the Ravens are the side.

Lions (-8.5) at Commanders

Detroit burned us last week, but this is a bounce-back spot. Washington’s defense is atrocious, their head coach looks lost, and the Lions’ offense should do whatever it wants. The number’s big, but so is the mismatch.

49ers (+3.5) vs Rams

San Francisco’s defense is decimated, and that’s a problem against Matthew Stafford. Still, this line seems wrong – a half-point swing toward a shorthanded team suggests sharp money lurking. Ugly dog, but that’s often where value hides.

Steelers (+3) at Chargers

The Chargers can’t protect Justin Herbert, and that’s fatal against T.J. Watt and company. Pittsburgh lives off turnover luck and pressure, and this matchup gives them both. Anything over +3 makes the Steelers worth the play.

Packers (-2.5) vs Eagles

This is the buy-low, sell-high game of the week. Everyone loves the Eagles after their trade splurge, but Green Bay’s better than it’s looked. The line stinks – which is why the sharp side is the Packers at home.

Sharp or Square Picks for Week 10

Simon Says: Broncos -8.5
Chad’s Choice: Buccaneers -2.5
Additional Leans: Jets, Panthers, Ravens, Giants, Packers.

Final Thoughts

Football’s cruel. You can handicap perfectly and still lose to a backup quarterback. Week 10’s lines are tricky, the public’s still chasing favorites, and value’s hiding in the ugly spots.

If this season’s taught us anything, it’s that the best bets are the ones that make you uncomfortable – and that nothing warms a cold Sunday like a sharp side that cashes.

This week felt like walking blindfolded through a minefield we mapped ourselves. We said it was a trap week. We saw the warning signs. And still, we charged right into it, favorites blazing – and got smoked. One win, four losses. The Falcons saved us from a goose egg, but just barely.

Falcons at Patriots: The Lone Bright Spot

Let’s start with the one thing that actually worked: Atlanta +5.5 at New England. The Falcons were down 21-7 in the first half, and it felt like we were watching a slow-motion car crash. But as we always preach: bet the number, not the narrative.

Michael Penix made mistakes, Drake Maye looked like a star for stretches, and we got the fluke we needed: a freak fumble turned touchdown that flipped the script. Drake London’s three touchdowns were the difference, proving why you play the math and not your emotions.

We didn’t cap it perfectly, but luck counts the same on the payout screen.

Chargers and Lions: Our Public Pain Parade

We knew the Chargers were the trap of traps – the team that ruins us every time we fall for them. And yet, there we were, holding a Chargers -9.5 ticket and pretending history doesn’t repeat itself.

The defense allowed six points all day, but Justin Herbert’s pick-six and a punt return TD buried us early. They should’ve covered, even dominated, and still found a way to lose on the number. Herbert played tough, but between the injuries and Joe Alt being carted off, the Chargers did what they do best: disappoint.

Detroit wasn’t much better. We loved the Lions coming off extra rest, getting defensive reinforcements, facing a rookie QB in JJ McCarthy. And what did we get? A Lions team that couldn’t convert a third down, a quarterback running for his life, and a defense that handed the Vikings free first downs on penalties. It was a total dud from the opening drive. Detroit might still be a good team, but right now, they’re a bettor’s nightmare: consistent only in inconsistency.

Broncos at Texans: Great Defense, Terrible Execution

Our Brass Balls pick – Texans -1.5 over Denver – looked like the right side until CJ Stroud left with an injury. The Houston defense was elite, bottling Bo Nix and forcing mistakes. But you can’t win in this league kicking field goals from inside the 10-yard line all afternoon.

Six of eight drives ended inside the Broncos’ 35-yard line. That’s the definition of offensive malpractice. Simon summed it up: “Injuries are part of the game. But that was just stupid football.”

Nick Caley, Texans OC, gets our “Shame, Shame, Shame” of the week. No imagination, no adjustments, no clue.

Chiefs at Bills: A Bad Read on Greatness

We leaned hard into Chiefs -1.5, thinking Patrick Mahomes would do what Patrick Mahomes does. Instead, it was the Josh Allen show. He was surgical in the first half: 15-of-17, 176 yards, and in total control.

Mahomes, meanwhile, couldn’t find rhythm. For the first time in his career, he dipped below 50% completions in a game. The Chiefs’ late surge teased us, but this was never theirs. Sometimes, you tip your cap. Allen was the better QB, Joe Brady’s offense was balanced, and we got outclassed.

What We Learned the Hard Way

When you do this every week – five games, no take-backs – your biggest goal is to avoid the 1–4. We didn’t. But the truth? We could’ve been 0-5. The Falcons’ miracle cover spared us from full humiliation.

We ignored our own advice and bet favorites in a trap week. We loved those plays since Tuesday, and instead of pivoting, we doubled down. That’s not bad luck – that’s bad discipline.

Simon’s self-inflicted “Shame” is well-earned. When the sportsbook is packed with public money and you’re on the same sides as everyone else, you’ve already lost the edge. We talk about fading the crowd, then spend the weekend sitting next to them. That’s how you get 1-4.

Sharp or Square Picks: Early Week 10 Leans

You can’t dwell. You learn, you adjust, you move on. Early leans for next week? We’re eyeing Ravens -3 vs. Minnesota, Lions -3 vs. Washington, and Pittsburgh +3.5 vs. the Chargers – a team that might not be able to block a pop-up blitz at this point.

We’ll also be watching the Rams closely. They were one of the few big favorites who delivered, hammering New Orleans and reminding everyone that Stafford, McVay, and Puka still matter. Don’t be surprised if we ride with them next weekend.

Halloween week is supposed to be spooky – but for bettors, the real fright has come from how well favorites have been performing. This NFL season has flipped the old rules on their head. Home underdogs aren’t barking. Favorites are cashing at record rates. The pros are confused. The public is gloating.

We’ve spent the week narrowing down our five contest picks, and while we usually ride the dogs together, this slate has forced us to face something uncomfortable: maybe the chalk isn’t so scary after all.

Falcons (+5.5) at Patriots

We start with one of the biggest divides between us and the pros. Everyone sharp seems to love Atlanta, but we’re not convinced. Yes, if Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London both play, the Falcons’ offense becomes balanced again. Yes, the Patriots are inflated by Drake Maye mania and a five-game run against the spread.

But betting on a young quarterback on the road, outdoors, in New England feels like standing in front of a runaway train. Penix has looked lost away from home, and the Patriots’ defensive front can still create chaos. This might be a pure “hold your nose” situation – value on Atlanta, but the timing feels wrong.

Chargers (-8.5) at Titans

We both love this one. It’s rare for us to line up on a near-double-digit favorite, but the matchup screams blowout. Tennessee’s injury list keeps growing, and without Jeffery Simmons, their run defense disappears.

Justin Herbert is finally showing us QB1 energy – confident, visible, comfortable – and Jim Harbaugh has the Chargers quietly trending upward. Harbaugh’s track record as a road favorite as LA’s head coach is elite (10-2 ATS), and the Chargers come in rested. Every sign points toward another east coast, early-start win for this team. We’ll happily take this number under ten.

Vikings (+9) at Lions

The pros are once again on the wrong side of a number. Detroit doesn’t just win, it smashes. When the Lions cover, they cover by double digits. When they don’t, they lose outright.

This matchup tilts perfectly toward Detroit’s identity: a power-running offense against a bottom-ten rush defense. Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have turned extended rest into a weapon: the Lions are 15-4 ATS with extra prep. Even if the line feels inflated, Campbell’s teams don’t sleepwalk. The Vikings, now riding JJ McCarthy’s uncertainty, look outclassed. We’re eating the chalk here without hesitation.

Panthers (+13.5) at Packers

This one is harder to stomach. It’s ugly, uncomfortable, and purely about the number. Jordan Love never covers as a big favorite, and Green Bay tends to play down to bad teams. Carolina, for all its flaws, quietly ranks top-10 in early-down success rate allowed. That means opponents rarely rip off big plays early in drives – the kind of rhythm the Packers need.

Bryce Young hasn’t earned anyone’s trust, but the spot favors a bounce-back after last week’s embarrassment with Andy Dalton. If the Panthers can limit possessions, they can keep this within two touchdowns. Not a confident play, but one that fits the math.

Colts (-3) at Steelers

Classic debate. Simon leans Indy; Chad swears by Mike Tomlin as a home dog. Historically, Tomlin covers in this spot more than any coach in the sport. But his defense has regressed badly, and the Colts’ offense can exploit single-high looks that leave tight ends wide open.

At the same time, Pittsburgh’s receiving depth and tight end sets could punish an injured Colts secondary. The pros jumped on the Steelers at +3.5, but we’re split – old trends versus new realities. For now, we’re staying off.

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Texans (-1.5) vs Broncos

Our Brass Balls Bet of the Week, courtesy of Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Houston is the play. CJ Stroud and this defense aren’t getting enough credit. Everyone talks about his missed throws, but the Texans’ defense is the story: dominant up front, rested after playing just 44 snaps last week, and facing a Broncos team without Patrick Surtain.

Bo Nix’s poise has impressed, but his numbers as a dog are dreadful. Houston’s defensive line should control the game, and with Nico Collins and Christian Kirk returning, the Texans’ offense regains its rhythm. We love the matchup, not just the number.

Jaguars (-2.5) at Raiders

This one divides us again. Trevor Lawrence on the road as a public favorite feels square, but the Raiders’ defense has been a turnstile. Without Maxx Crosby at full strength, there’s no one to pressure Lawrence.

Vegas’ secondary allows the highest completion rate in the league, and any offensive rhythm has vanished with Geno Smith under center. The pros grabbed the Raiders early at +3.5, but as the line fell, Jacksonville became playable. We trust offensive scheming here – the Jaguars should rebound off the bye.

Simon Says: Chiefs (-2) at Bills

When we say “playoff game in November,” this is what we mean. Both teams need it badly, but Kansas City’s balance makes the difference. Patrick Mahomes as a short favorite is still the safest bet in football.

Buffalo’s defense has been decimated, and Josh Allen’s decision-making feels off. His receivers aren’t helping: routes are lazy, separation is nonexistent, and against a top-five Chiefs defense, that’s a recipe for disaster. Kansas City feels undervalued even as a road favorite. It’s our Simon Says pick of the week.

Sharp or Square Picks: Week 9

So far, we’re aligned on four: Chargers, Lions, Texans, and Chiefs – all favorites, all terrifying, all justified. The fifth spot will come down to Sunday morning, where we’ll argue, panic, and probably overthink it live on YouTube. Stay tuned.

The more you gamble, the more you realize that some weeks aren’t about picking winners – they’re about dodging traps. This is one of those weeks. The board looks obvious, which is exactly why it’s terrifying.

Ravens (-7.5) at Dolphins

We said it right away: this game feels wrong. Lamar Jackson hasn’t played in weeks, Baltimore’s been living off last year’s reputation, and the public is piling on like it’s free money. The number hasn’t moved, which tells you sharp money is quietly on Miami.

We get it – the Dolphins are inconsistent, but they’re healthy, home, and facing a defense without a true pass rush. If you’re taking the +7.5, you should probably sprinkle the moneyline too. It’s a short week, a tired favorite, and a quarterback trying to find rhythm. That’s a recipe for a classic Thursday night reversal.

Bears (-2.5) at Bengals

Every year, there’s one team the market refuses to catch up on. This year it’s the Bengals – and not in a good way. Joe Flacco’s hurt, Trey Hendrickson’s hurt, and the pass rush is nonexistent. Chicago’s offensive line can bully this group, and Ben Johnson won’t put Caleb in a spot to lose this game.

Under a field goal, the Bears are the right side. Don’t overthink it.

Patriots (-5) vs Falcons

New England’s quietly turned into a juggernaut. The Falcons? Still a weekly medical report. Between Penix, London, Bates, and Harrison, nobody knows who’s playing. That uncertainty’s already baked in – this line should be closer to three.

We’d lean Falcons if they’re fully healthy, but until we know who’s under center, the Patriots are the safer, if boring, side. Not sexy. Just steady.

Chargers (-9.5) at Titans

There’s no team that tests our patience quite like the Los Angeles Chargers. Every year we swear them off, and every year we get sucked back in. This is that week again.

The Titans are down corners, down pass rushers, and down bad. Tennessee’s coaching decisions defy logic – punting on 4th and 4 when you can’t stop anyone. If the Chargers are ever going to look competent, it’s here. We’ll regret it, but we’ll ride with L.A. one more time.

Chad’s Choice: Lions (-8.5) vs Vikings

This was the easiest pick on the board – and somehow, that makes us nervous. The Lions are healthy, rested, and at home, while Minnesota’s trotting out a rookie against a ferocious pass rush. Detroit’s run game can control the clock, and Jared Goff at home has been money.

Chalky? Sure. But sometimes the public’s right. Give us Detroit. Dan Campbell’s team just feels inevitable.

Colts (-3) at Steelers

We tried to ride the Tomlin magic last week and got burned. The rah-rah speech doesn’t fix a busted secondary. The Colts are a machine right now – dominant on the ground, efficient through the air, and built around Jonathan Taylor, who’s quietly making an MVP case.

Chalk has been cashing, and Indy feels like the more complete team. It’s not fun, but it’s the play.

Texans (-1.5) vs Broncos

This line flipped fast, and for good reason: Patrick Surtain is out. But Houston’s defense is legit – DeMeco Ryans has this unit humming, and CJ Stroud has poise beyond his years. The public still sees Denver as hot – we see a regression candidate.

We grabbed Houston early at +1.5. Even at -1.5, we’re not scared. Sharps aren’t either.

Simon Says: Chiefs (-1.5) at Bills

This is our “Simon Says” game of the week. The market can’t seem to price Kansas City correctly. The Chiefs are healthy, locked in, and somehow undervalued. Buffalo’s still living off 2020 vibes – Josh Allen looks lost, the defense is beat up, and Ed Oliver being out matters.

The Chiefs don’t flinch. They don’t panic. They’re playing chess while everyone else is drawing plays in crayon. This number should be three. Take the value.

Seahawks (-3.5) at Commanders

Every trap week needs one game that dares you to take the obvious side. This is it. Seattle’s the better team, top to bottom. But Washington’s coming off an embarrassing prime time loss, and Jayden Daniels could return. That’s where the hook stings.

Still, Seattle’s physicality travels. Sam Darnold’s been steady, the defense is elite, and trusting Washington’s coaching staff feels like lighting money on fire. We’ll hate ourselves, but we’ll take the Seahawks.

Cowboys (-2.5) vs Cardinals

Call this one the Kyler Conundrum. Dallas shouldn’t be laying points against anyone competent, and Arizona’s been scrappy. Kyler’s undefeated lifetime in Dallas, and if he plays, the Cards are live.

Still, under a field goal with the better kicker and the better defense, the Cowboys are worth a lean. Just don’t expect to enjoy it.

Final Thoughts

This week’s board is full of honey traps – lines that look too easy, numbers that refuse to move, and favorites that feel inevitable. But we’ve seen enough of these weeks to know: sometimes you lean into the discomfort.

We love the Lions, the Chiefs, the Colts, and – help us – the Chargers. Just don’t call us when the backdoors open.