NFL Week 11 had everything: coaching blunders, redemption arcs, playoff clarity, and a few quarterbacks who melted like snowmen under pressure. Let’s break it all down.

Lions at Eagles

Dan Campbell finally crossed the line from fearless to reckless. Fourth downs piled up like parking tickets, and each one cost Detroit more momentum. Jared Goff, bundled in two gloves and bad decisions, looked frozen in every sense. Philly’s offense was an eyesore, but Vic Fangio’s defense? Terrifying. Jaelan Phillips and the rest of that front seven are monsters – the Eagles have quietly flipped identities from juggernaut offense to sledgehammer defense. And if that unit keeps playing like this, they can win ugly all the way into January.

Seahawks at Rams

Sam Darnold’s “I’m back” campaign hit the wall – hard. Four picks, each uglier than the last, erased a brilliant defensive effort from Mike Macdonald’s group. You could feel the tension: big stage, division on the line, and Darnold blinked. Sean McVay and the Rams smelled blood, attacked his tendencies, and made him see ghosts again. Seattle’s roster is loaded, their scheme sound, but this was a gut-check loss that screamed: they’ll only go as far as their quarterback can take them.

Broncos at Chiefs

Statement win. That’s what this was for Sean Payton and Bo Nix. The young QB looked poised, calm, and unbothered by it all – a far cry from the jittery version we saw two weeks ago. Denver’s defense? Ruthless. They’re on pace to break sack records and break opponents’ will. Kansas City fought hard, but you could feel the tide turn: the Broncos are the best team in football right now. From 1-2 to 9-2 heading into the bye, they’ve gone from punchline to powerhouse. This team looks like it’s hunting the AFC’s top seed.

Bears at Vikings

Ben Johnson is cooking, and Chicago’s finally got juice again. Caleb Williams is chaotic – misses wide-open reads, then spins out of a sack and fires a 40-yard missile that only he sees. The Bears are wild, undisciplined, and alive. Meanwhile, Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings keep trying to force-feed a pass-happy plan to a quarterback who can’t swim in deep water yet. JJ McCarthy’s raw, nervous, and clearly miscast in this system. Chicago’s staff is maximizing its kid. Minnesota’s is exposing theirs.

Cowboys at Raiders: MNF Prediction

Vegas on a Monday night always feels like a trap, and this one reeks of it. Dallas has the better roster, the better quarterback, and the hotter offense, but the Raiders are due for one of those “how did they win that?” primetime games. The Cowboys’ defense has leaked oil for weeks, and Ashton Jeanty could be the one to rip them open. Still, expect fireworks: Dak and CeeDee Lamb will get theirs, but so will Vegas’ ground game.

The Pick: Raiders +3
Parlay: Ashton Jeanty Anytime TD, CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD, Raiders +3. +600.

This one smells like a 27-26 nail-biter under the Vegas lights.

The NFL season’s slogging through the dog days, but if you dig deep enough, there’s still money to be made. Good matchups are rare, quarterbacks are mediocre, and offenses are broken – but that’s when sharp bettors thrive.

Here’s how I see this weekend shaking out: my three best bets brought to you by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

49ers (-3) at Cardinals

Brock Purdy’s back, and that alone should give the Niners a spark. The defense is held together by duct tape, but the Cardinals are an even bigger disaster. They’re missing corners, linemen, and their defensive front can’t stop anyone.

Arizona’s offense? One read and panic. McBride might get 12 targets because there’s no one else left standing. The Niners’ offense has been rolling behind their backup, and plugging Purdy back in should keep it humming – rust or not.

San Francisco’s too talented, Arizona’s too banged up. Don’t overthink it – back the road favorite.

Seahawks (+3) at Rams

This one’s about secondaries. The Rams can’t cover anybody; the Seahawks can. That’s the whole handicap. Seattle’s corners are healthy again, they can rush with four, and that should let them hang tight against Stafford and Puka.

McVay’s offense is creative, but that Rams defense is living off reputation. The Seahawks have been better on the road than at home under Mike Macdonald, and they travel well.

This might look like a toss-up, but Seattle’s the sharper side. I like the road underdog to keep rolling.

Lions (+2.5) at Eagles

The Eagles might be winning, but they look lost doing it. Their offense is lifeless, the line’s banged up, and they lead the league in three-and-outs. Dan Campbell, on the other hand, just took over play-calling and gave his guys a jolt.

Detroit started throwing early, got creative, and the vibe flipped instantly. Sure, that came against the Washington tire fire, but momentum’s momentum. Campbell’s players clearly respond to him, and that matters.

Philly’s due for a clunker, and if Goff can stay upright outdoors, the Lions can absolutely steal this one.

We’ve hit the dog days of the NFL calendar—the point where injuries, coaching tightness, and playoff math start to warp lines and public perception. It’s where you separate the contenders from the content. Here’s how I’m playing it.

Monday Night: Eagles at Packers (-2)

• Pick: Packers (under a field goal)

Green Bay’s the more well-rounded team right now. At Lambeau, point spread under three, I like the Packers’ explosiveness when they play up in class—and the Eagles’ offense still hasn’t proved it’s “fixed” against a real defense. Big game for LaFleur; I think he answers.

Bills (-9.5) at Dolphins

• Pick: Bills -9.5

If Buffalo’s a legit AFC threat, this is a step-on-the-throat spot. That defensive front looked like a Super Bowl unit against KC; if they bring 80% of that, Miami’s in trouble. Narrative says “flat spot” after the Chiefs—my gut says statement win.

Steelers (+3) at Chargers

• Pick: Steelers +3

LA’s OL is gutted. When Pittsburgh’s front hunts, games flip fast—silent count in their own building, turnover or two, and suddenly it’s a Steelers script. I’ll take the points.

Ravens at Vikings (First Half)

• Pick: Ravens 1H -2.5

This is a system play I love: Lamar as a first-half favorite has been money. Extra rest, offense and defense healthy, Flores’ blitzes versus the league’s best QB against pressure. Ravens tend to jump teams early—ride the 1H.

Browns at Jets (+2)

• Pick: Jets as a home dog

Ugly? Yes. Also value. Nasty weather, plodding game, and Cleveland’s defense routinely travels worse than it plays on the Lake. Home dog + low total profile.

Jaguars at Texans (+1)

• Pick: Texans as a dog (and teaser leg over 7)

Houston’s defense can win this outright, and Jacksonville’s pass-catchers are banged up. If you’re a teaser person, this is a classic push through 3 and 7 spot.

Seahawks at Cardinals (+6.5)

• Pick: Cardinals +6.5 (wait for +7 if it pops)

Arizona’s defense is legit and structurally equipped to dampen Seattle’s play-action explosives. Brissett keeps them on schedule and out of disasters. They’ve been live every week—one-score game again.

Rams at 49ers (+4.5)

• Lean: Over; 49ers underdog angle

This series has been dog-driven for years. SF’s defense is thin up front; Rams’ offense plays fast and throws. Niners can still scheme explosives—especially with George Kittle healthy—so I lean to points and the ‘dog if you demanded a side.

Lions at Commanders (+8)

• Pick: Commanders +8

Mariota is in, but is Jayden Daniels really worth five or six points? This seems too high.

You couldn’t have asked for a better Sunday slate. After a few sluggish weeks of NFL football, Week 9 delivered – big quarterback performances, some ugly coaching decisions, and a whole lot of clarity in the NFC playoff picture. Let’s run through it game by game.

Lions at Vikings

Brian Flores drew up a masterpiece. His defense came out hunting, and rookie QB J.J. McCarthy made just enough plays to steal one on the road. Detroit looked flat – no edge, no urgency – and Minnesota punched them right in the mouth. This was a “line-in-the-sand” game for the Vikings, and they responded like a team with pride. Don’t count them out in the NFC Wild Card chase.

Colts at Steelers

Sometimes football’s simple: your $100 million guy just has to make a play. That’s what T.J. Watt did. With Indy threatening to go up 10-0, Watt blew around the edge, stripped the quarterback, and flipped the entire game. Pittsburgh’s defense looked like Pittsburgh’s defense again: five sacks, six turnovers. Mike Tomlin’s teams never die easy, and this was a vintage Steelers win.

Bears at Bengals

Caleb Williams looked like a roller coaster – you scream, you cheer, you almost puke. But he made explosive plays, and that’s what matters. The Bears somehow won one of the wildest finishes of the year – that’s a locker-room win for a young quarterback still figuring it out. For Cincinnati, it’s another gut punch for a defense that can’t stop anyone.

Panthers at Packers

You can’t lose that game. You just can’t. The Panthers are scrappy, but if you’re Matt LaFleur and the Packers, that’s a nightmare loss at home. Jordan Love and company moved the ball easily but went 0-for-4 in the red zone. That’s play-calling and execution. Losing tight end Tucker Kraft to what looks like an ACL tear only adds to the misery. Green Bay should’ve been leading the NFC North after Detroit’s loss; instead, they blew a golden chance.

Broncos at Texans

Bo Nix is the ultimate box of chocolates – you never know what you’re getting. Half the game he looks like a rookie in over his head, then he rips a 40-yard dime that makes you think he’s the future. The Broncos’ defense is legit, but they can’t keep winning if Nix keeps missing layups. Still, Sean Payton’s group is 8-2 if they take care of the Raiders Thursday night, and nobody saw that coming. Ugly or not, they win football games.

Bills at Chiefs

Everyone calls this a rivalry. It’s not – at least not until Buffalo wins a playoff game. They got another one in the regular season, but that doesn’t move the needle much. Josh Allen was sharp, the defense played physical, and they pushed Kansas City around for four quarters. Still, until the Bills beat Mahomes when it matters – in January – this will always feel like Jordan vs. Ewing. Buffalo needed this statement win badly. The Chiefs? They’ll shrug it off. Andy Reid will hit the bye week, fix the offense, and probably host the AFC title game anyway.

Seahawks at Commanders

This one turned from a football game into a blowout fast. Jayden Daniels’ elbow bent the wrong way late in this one, and that’s all you need to know about Washington’s season: it’s over. After a magical NFC title run, they’re cooked. Sam Darnold and the Seahawks rolled, and Seattle suddenly looks like a legitimate NFC contender.

Darnold’s revival is one of the great stories of the season. The guy’s been written off twice, and now he’s on arguably the best contract in football. Credit John Schneider – trading for Leonard Williams, nailing the JSN pick, hiring Mike Macdonald. That’s elite GM work. Seattle’s balanced, violent on defense, and looks like a team that could win 11 or 12 games.

Cardinals at Cowboys: MNF Prediction

Monday Night Football – we’ll dive into it after the game, but here’s what we know: Kyler Murray appears to be benched, and it’s Jacoby Brissett time. When Brissett’s started, Arizona’s actually been pretty good. They easily could’ve beaten the Colts a couple weeks ago, and they probably should’ve beaten the Packers. He’s played well. And here’s the thing – the Cowboys’ defense isn’t good. So, if you’re giving me a field goal with Brissett and the Cardinals, I’ll take it. Dak and the Dallas offense are solid, but this feels like it could end up being a one-point game.

Every week, I pick three NFL games that I love the most — my “3 for the Money.” This week, it’s a mix of teams I trust, teams I’m buying low on, and one legendary coach I refuse to fade at home.

1. Lions -8.5 vs. Vikings: The McCarthy Meltdown Spot

This is your classic “everyone’s out on Minnesota” week — and for good reason. They’re beat up, and we’re supposed to believe J.J. McCarthy can walk into Detroit and hang with Dan Campbell’s crew? Come on.

I actually like McCarthy — he’s from Michigan, which makes this game personal for fans in the Michigan area. But this situation feels bad. It reminds me of when San Francisco tried to juggle their quarterback room pre–Brock Purdy. Sometimes you just screw up the QB situation and the whole thing unravels.

The Lions are monsters at home. Jared Goff indoors, off rest, with a coaching staff that’s dialed in — that’s as safe a bet as you’ll find in the NFL. Detroit’s defense, even with secondary injuries, has been outstanding at limiting bad quarterbacks, and McCarthy hasn’t shown us anything outside of one decent quarter.

Dan Campbell is a cash cow — his Lions have covered the spread 65% of the time under his tenure. Kelvin Sheppard’s defense is flying around, and Aidan Hutchinson looks unblockable again. I don’t see Minnesota hanging.

• The Pick: Detroit -8.5. This could get ugly early.

2. Steelers +3 vs. Colts: One More Tomlin Spot

I said it earlier this week — I’m done pretending Mike Tomlin is on the hot seat. The Steelers don’t fire coaches, and Tomlin doesn’t quit. But man, this feels like a fork in the road game for Pittsburgh.

They’re back-to-back home underdogs, they just got embarrassed, and history says this is when Tomlin shines. When he’s getting three or more points as an underdog, he’s 40-21-3 against the spread. At home, it’s even better — he covers by nearly a touchdown per game.

Here’s why I like the Steelers:

• The Colts have been inflated by a soft schedule.
• Their secondary is slow and hurt.
• They can’t cover tight ends — and Pittsburgh runs two-TE sets more than half the time.
• This is one of those “voodoo” games at Acrisure — ugly, physical, turnover-filled — exactly the kind of game Pittsburgh tends to win.

T.J. Watt needs to finally take over, and if he does, they can pull this off outright.

• The Pick: Pittsburgh +3. History, trends, and desperation all line up.

3. Falcons +5.5 at Patriots: The Buy-Low, Sell-High Special

I’ve faded New England the last few weeks and gotten burned. I’m not doing it again blindly — but this feels like the perfect spot to buy low on Atlanta.

The Falcons were favored by a touchdown last week, got absolutely smoked, and now everyone’s bailing. That’s exactly when I get in. In the last 20 years, teams that lose by 20+ as big favorites cover 67% of the time the next week. It’s the NFL’s ultimate overreaction pattern.

I like this spot for Atlanta because:

• They should get Drake London back — and that changes everything.
• Their defense is getting healthier and ranks 2nd in the NFL in preventing explosive passes, which is a big deal against Drake Maye.
• The Patriots’ linebackers can’t cover running backs or tight ends — so this could be a big Bijan and Kyle Pitts game.

Look, the Patriots are good — Vrabel’s turned them around fast — but this line’s too inflated. The market’s gone too far.

• The Pick: Falcons +5.5. Buy low, sell high, simple as that.

Wrapping Up

So there you go — my “3 for the Money” this week:

1. Lions -8.5 vs. Vikings
2. Steelers +3 vs. Colts
3. Falcons +5.5 at Patriots

Detroit’s dominance, Tomlin’s pride, and a bounce-back spot for Atlanta — that’s how you make money in November.

We’ll see how it shakes out, but remember: the NFL is all about timing and value. And this week, I think we’re on the right side of both.

We’re officially into that weird stretch of the season when the injuries pile up, contenders start separating, and half the league’s fanbases are already firing up mock drafts. This is the time of year when you’ve got to find value in the wreckage – spots where perception has swung too far and the public’s lost its mind.

Stuckey and I went deep on the pod this week, and after sifting through the tape, the injuries, and a few too many ugly offensive lines, three games jumped off the board. Let’s get into my HAMMERS for NFL Week 8.

1. Browns (+7) at Patriots

I can already hear it: “Why would anyone take Cleveland on the road?” Simply put: because seven points in this spot is too many. Drake Maye has been fun, no doubt. But he hasn’t seen a defense like this yet. The Browns’ defensive line can wreck games, and they’ve been nails at home; if they can carry even half of that juice into Foxborough, this thing stays close.

The question is whether Dillon Gabriel can hit a few chunk throws against a vulnerable Patriots secondary. Stuckey pointed out that New England is prone to giving up explosive passes and can be had over the top if you protect the pass. Cleveland’s offensive line isn’t perfect, but they can scheme it up.

Bottom line: it’s an ugly game, but ugly covers pay the same. When everyone’s jumping back on the New England bandwagon, that’s when you fade it.

2. Steelers (+3.5) vs Packers

If you’ve bet the NFL long enough, you know the Mike Tomlin spot when you see it. Underdog, at home, coming off a loss, national audience doubting them. It’s practically muscle memory for Pittsburgh to rise in these games.

Green Bay’s offense still hasn’t found its rhythm – too many moving parts, too many wideouts in and out of the lineup, and a line that’s never quite healthy. They’ll eventually figure it out, but not this week, not against T.J. Watt and a rested defense.

Add in Tomlin’s voodoo – blocked punts, tipped picks, whatever magic he conjures at home – and it’s a recipe for another ugly grinder that somehow ends 20-17 Steelers.

The numbers don’t lie: Tomlin is the most profitable coach in NFL history as a home underdog of three points or more.

3. Commanders (+12.5) vs Chiefs

Yeah, I know – it’s terrifying to step in front of Patrick Mahomes when he looks like he’s back in MVP form. But 12.5 points? That’s too rich. The Commanders aren’t a great football team, but they’re not the Raiders either.

Kansas City’s offensive line is limping – potentially down three starters, including Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor. When that happens, you can’t just assume Mahomes will cover double digits against a competent front. Washington can run the ball, chew the clock, and keep the Chiefs off the field. Marcus Mariota isn’t a star, but he’s a serviceable backup who’s run this system before.

Stuckey and I both see this as a classic buy-low, sell-high spot.

The Hammers for NFL Week 8:

• Browns +7
• Steelers +3.5
• Commanders +12.5

All odds and lines are presented by our partners at Hard Rock Bet and subject to change.

Every Sunday lately feels a little strange. Between the London games and the double Monday night matchups, the rhythm of an NFL weekend has been off. You wake up, there’s football from Europe before breakfast, then a thin early slate, and somehow you’re watching Titans-Raiders in the afternoon wondering how we got here.

That’s life in this version of the NFL – messy, uneven, and full of weird spots. But that’s also where the value is. The more unpredictable the schedule and the more overreactions we see, the better the edges get.

So here we go. These are my three HAMMERS for NFL Week 7.

1. New Orleans Saints (+4.5) at Chicago Bears

The narrative around the Saints is way off. People talk about them like they’re tanking for a draft pick, but this team’s been competitive every single week. Spencer Rattler, who looked unplayable last year, has been solid – nothing flashy, but capable. And “capable” goes a long way when the rest of your roster can hang around.

Chicago’s in a tricky spot. They’re coming off an emotional Monday night win, the kind that usually leads to a flat performance. Caleb Williams has made progress – he’s taking fewer sacks and processing quicker – but he’s still inconsistent throwing against pressure.

New Orleans isn’t elite, but they’re disciplined, and they can absolutely win this kind of ugly game. Getting more than a field goal feels generous. Give me the Saints and the points.

2. Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles look broken. The offense that used to bully teams has turned into a disjointed mess. The play calling’s been off since Shane Steichen left, the offensive line’s banged up, and the run game has completely evaporated.

This week they face a nightmare matchup in the Vikings. Brian Flores’ defense plays more Cover 2 and zone than anyone – and that’s exactly what gives Jalen Hurts trouble. He’s been one of the league’s worst quarterbacks against zone and blitz looks this year. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense has regressed too: less pressure, more injuries, and secondary issues all over the place.

Minnesota’s rested, well-coached, and at home. This is a statement spot for them, and I’ll happily take the +1.5.

3. Las Vegas Raiders (+11.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

It’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes – but it’s even harder to trust him to cover double digits. Historically, Kansas City wins these games straight up but rarely by enough to cash tickets. And funny enough, both of Mahomes’ outright losses as a heavy favorite have come against the Raiders.

The Chiefs’ offense is trending upward – Kelce looks fresher, the speed guys on the outside are stretching the field again – but the Raiders have the pieces to make this uncomfortable. They’ll try to run the ball, chew clock, and count on Maxx Crosby to wreck a drive or two.

Vegas is far from stable, but in a division rivalry with a huge spread, I’ll always take the ugly side.

The Hammers for NFL Week 7:

• Saints +4.5
• Vikings +1.5
• Raiders +11.5

All odds and lines are presented by our partners at Hard Rock Bet and subject to change.

If you’ve been watching the NFL this season, one thing should be obvious: it’s wide freaking open. I’m not sure I can remember a year where the difference between a top team and a mid-tier one has been smaller. Between injuries, coaching changes, and quarterback volatility, the gap between a team like Buffalo and Indianapolis isn’t that big right now. Same goes for San Francisco and Tampa, or Philly and Seattle.

It’s chaos and I love it. Chaos creates value.

That’s why this week, I rolled out a new little segment I’m calling HAMMERS. These are the games I feel strongest about – spots where the public narrative doesn’t match the actual football being played. And I’ve got three of them.

1. New Orleans Saints (+3.5) vs. New England Patriots

Everyone’s written off the Saints like they’re competing for the No. 1 overall pick. The consensus take seems to be: “They’re terrible, they’ll draft a quarterback, move on.”

Pump the brakes.

This isn’t some unwatchable, bottom-feeding team. Offensively, they’ve got real pieces, and Spencer Rattler – who was unplayable last year – has quietly been average. And in today’s NFL, “average” quarterback play can keep you competitive every week. Stuckey and I both like them here.

The Patriots are coming off an emotional win over Buffalo, the kind of game that can lead to a letdown. New Orleans, meanwhile, is quietly confident, and playing at home helps. I’ll take the points.

2. Seattle Seahawks (+1) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If you’re looking for a spot that screams “hammer,” it’s Seattle on the road as an underdog.

Here’s the kicker: Sam Darnold has been the best quarterback in football by basically every metric so far this year. EPA per play, success rate, completion percentage over expectation – you name it. He’s No. 1 across the board.

Trevor Lawrence? Middle of the pack. And if you forced every GM in the league to pick between them right now, I think most would take Darnold.

Seattle’s banged up defensively, and that’s worth noting, but this is a veteran team that knows how to respond. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is due for some turnover regression – 14 takeaways already this year after only nine all of last season. That’s not sustainable.

3. San Francisco 49ers (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There are certain games where you just ride the wave, and for me, that’s San Francisco right now.

Mac Jones (yes, I’m calling him Michael McCorkle Jones because it’s funnier that way) has been a warrior. He’s playing through injuries, dry-heaving on the sidelines, and still slinging the ball with a bunch of practice-squad receivers. That Rams game was one of the gutsiest performances I’ve seen this season.

And while the Niners are dealing with their own injuries – Purdy’s status, some receivers banged up – this is still a Shanahan team with extra rest and extra prep. Tampa’s been fun, and Baker Mayfield deserves credit for his resurgence, but let’s not pretend they’re blowing teams out. All four of their wins have come down to the final minute.

You give me three points with Shanahan and a tough-as-nails quarterback like Mac, I’m taking it. Every time.

Parity is the Story of the Season

If you lined up the NFL right now and ranked teams by market power ratings, you’d see something wild: the top six teams – Packers, Eagles, Chiefs, Bills, Lions, and Rams – are all within a single point of each other. Then there’s a pack of a dozen teams right behind them within another two points.

That’s never happened before. The parity is unprecedented. You could make a legitimate case for seven or eight teams to win the Super Bowl today and none of them would sound crazy.

So yeah, it’s messy, unpredictable, and the lines are razor thin every Sunday. But that’s where the value lives. And that’s what makes weeks like this so damn fun.

The Hammers:

• Saints +3.5
• Seahawks +1
• 49ers +3

Let’s rock that.

All odds and lines are presented by our partners at Hard Rock Bet and subject to change.