If you survived Sunday’s NFL slate with your bankroll – and blood pressure – intact, congratulations. For bettors, this week was a masterclass in volatility. Blown leads, coaching mistakes, and a few heroic covers kept everyone on tilt.

We wrapped up Week 11 going 3-2 on our five favorite bets, equal parts proud and scarred. Let’s break down the carnage.

Browns Bring the Pain (and the Cover)

Let’s start with a win that aged us all ten years: Cleveland +8.5. It wasn’t pretty – it was trench warfare. The Browns’ offense barely qualified as sentient, but Myles Garrett was a one-man demolition crew. Four sacks, endless havoc, and a defense that kept Lamar Jackson guessing all afternoon.

When Dillon Gabriel left with an injury, backup Shedeur Sanders came in and reminded the world that “backup” isn’t just a title – it’s a warning. Still, Cleveland’s defense held firm, and the hook was never in doubt. The Browns are flawed, battered, and completely unwatchable – but for bettors, they’re beautiful.

Bryce Young Rises from the Ashes

If there was ever a “don’t overthink it” game, it was Carolina +3.5 at Atlanta. The line movement scared everyone, but it shouldn’t have. Young threw for nearly 450 yards and outscored the Falcons 23-6 from the final two minutes of the first half through overtime.

This was Bryce’s “I’m him” moment: guts, grit, and pinpoint passing under fire. Carolina’s defense made key halftime adjustments, bottled up Bijan Robinson, and proved that even a team in rebuild mode can dominate when coached with purpose (and blessed with a quarterback who refuses to die).

The Falcons? Five straight losses. Raheem Morris is now officially coaching on borrowed time.

Stafford and the Hook of Doom

Then came the Rams. The Brass Balls Bet of the Week turned into a Brass Knuckles beating. Four interceptions from Sam Darnold (yes, four) should’ve meant a comfortable win. Instead, Sean McVay coached like a man allergic to risk. Conservative play-calling, wasted turnovers, and a defense that ran out of gas gave Seattle life.

When the Seahawks finally scored their first touchdown – with two minutes left – every Rams backer across America felt the same thing: the sting of the backdoor. Sometimes you die by the hook, and this week, it was a slow death.

Texans Escape, Barely

The Houston Texans should’ve coasted. They dominated statistically, controlled the clock, and made Tennessee look helpless… right up until they didn’t. A 95-yard, penalty-aided Titans drive nearly flipped the game, and bettors everywhere aged in dog years watching it unfold.

Cam Ward looked lifeless for three quarters before engineering a miracle that turned into a nightmare for Houston -4.5 backers. They won, yes – but it was a moral loss. As Chad put it, “Shame on you, Texans. You’re supposed to be elite.” They remain elite… in causing heart attacks.

The Bills’ Drunken Shootout

Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay was the kind of game that makes you question your life choices. Nine lead changes. A total that closed five points too low. Josh Allen played like a man possessed – three passing and three rushing touchdowns – while Baker Mayfield did everything humanly possible to stay close.

Then, with five minutes left, the Bills flipped a one-point deficit into a double-digit cover. A dagger for Bucs bettors, and the kind of game that defines both franchises: Buffalo exhilarating and erratic, Tampa tough but doomed.

Broncos Break the Kingdom

Patrick Mahomes is human after all. Denver’s defense smothered him, Sean Payton out-schemed him, and Bo Nix – yes, that Bo Nix – finally made the throws we’ve all been waiting for. Denver now controls its own division destiny.

It was gritty, physical football – the kind that breaks betting models and hearts. Simon nailed it: “When a line feels wrong, trust your gut.” The Broncos weren’t just live underdogs; they were barking all afternoon.

Caleb Keeps Cooking

Another cardiac finish, another win, and another week of wondering if Caleb Williams might actually be turning the Bears into contenders. JJ McCarthy, meanwhile, looks like a man reading the wrong playbook. The Vikings are falling apart, the Bears are somehow 7-3, and the NFC North just got messy.

Early Week 12 Leans

A few games have already caught our attention as we head into Week 12:

• Panthers +7 at 49ers: Overreaction city. The Niners’ defense is paper-thin, and Bryce is hot.
• Bucs +6.5 at Rams: We’ve seen this movie before: Baker in a bounce-back spot against a soft secondary.
• Lions -10.5 vs. Giants: It’s a huge number, but this is a big bounce-back opportunity off a loss.
• Colts +3.5 vs. Chiefs: Jonathan Taylor vs. a run defense made of wet cardboard.
• Seahawks -12.5 at Titans: The definition of “bad matchup” for Tennessee.

Don’t chase last week’s results. Momentum in the NFL lasts as long as a commercial break.

Bettors across the state of Florida are invited to take part in a brand new NHL betting promotion featuring the back-to-back Stanley Cup Champions: the Florida Panthers. Here’s how it works:

$10 Bonus Bets for Panthers Hat Tricks

All bettors who place a pregame single bet or Same Game Parlay on any available Panthers game market (like a puck line, moneyline, over/under, player prop, etc.) will receive a $10 Bonus Bet if a Panthers player scores a Hat Trick (scores three or more goals). That’s it! We’re running it back for every Panthers game this season (November 15th – July 5th). If you place a bet on the game, you’re sweating a Panthers Hat Trick for a $10 Bonus Bet.

$100 Bonus Bets up for grabs at Amerant Bank Arena

What’s more, the promotion bumps up to a $100 Bonus Bet for Hard Rock Bet players attending Panthers games at Amerant Bank Arena. Once you’re inside the stadium, simply open the Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app and allow it to confirm your location – you don’t even have to place a bet. If a home-team player nets a Hat Trick, you’ll score a $100 Bonus Bet.

What to remember:

• This promotion is for Florida players only.
• The Qualifying wager is $1+ for the $10 Bonus Bet.
• Qualifying wagers must be placed pregame. Live bets do not count.
• Players are eligible for a maximum of one Bonus Bet per game.
• Bonus bets will expire after 7 days.
• Bonus Bets will be awarded within 48 hours of the action occurring.
• The player that scores the Hat Trick must play for the Panthers.
• If your bet is cashed out early it will no longer qualify for the promotion.

Don’t forget the Pick 6

Fan of football, too? We’ve got a similar promotion running for every NFL home game for the Jags and Bucs. If the home team scores a Pick 6, we’re giving out bonus bets.  Official T&C apply.

Somehow, we’re already staring down NFL Week 11 – and it feels like the season’s moving at warp speed. The games mean more, lines are getting sharper, and every Sunday feels heavier.

We say it every year: football season goes by way too fast.

Sharp Calls

This week’s Sharp Calls began with a twist – respected pros pounding the table for the Rams. Early in the week, we leaned Seattle, but the more we heard, the more the evidence lined up for Los Angeles. That’s now our Brass Balls Bet of the Week – and we’re proud of it.

Elsewhere, the calls came in heavy on Carolina and Buffalo. The Panthers, the pros argue, are catching too many points against an exhausted Falcons team. The Bills, meanwhile, are supposedly “due” for a Josh Allen bounce-back performance. That may be true, however, Simon still leans Tampa Bay – but with Baker Mayfield hobbling and the Bucs’ offense out of sync, he’ll be watching and waiting before making that commitment.

Bengals (+5) at Steelers

Quiet line, loud opinion. We grabbed Cincinnati early at +5.5 – and we’re glad we did. Joe Flacco looks poised, the Bengals’ receiving corps is elite, and Pittsburgh’s secondary has become a liability. We know Mike Tomlin thrives as an underdog, but as a home favorite after a loss? History says fade him.

The Steelers’ offense isn’t healthy, the defense is worn down, and Flacco’s lifetime 9-4 ATS record versus Tomlin gives us confidence. Not our heaviest play, but it’s a solid position with a key number intact.

Texans (-6.5) at Titans

We were patient, waiting for this number to drop below seven, and it finally did. Even with Davis Mills likely under center, Houston’s defense should dominate. The Titans can’t score, can’t protect the quarterback, and can’t stop anyone on the ground.

Yes, sharp money hit Tennessee when CJ Stroud missed practice, but that’s noise. Houston’s defensive front can cover this number almost single-handedly. Cautious play, not a contest lock – but we’re holding it.

Packers (-7) at Giants

Jameis Winston’s back under center, and he’s somehow become a mix of quarterback, stand-up comic, and Broadway performer. His “Hamilton” press-conference cameo was legendary – but that doesn’t make him a bet.

The Packers haven’t covered as a touchdown favorite all season, and the public’s all over the Giants. Green Bay’s defense should make Jameis’ improvisation act a short one. We’ll pass on the emotion – and the turnover roulette – this week.

Buccaneers (+5.5) at Bills

Have we leaned too far into Baker Ball? Maybe. Without Bucky Irving, Tampa’s run game – and its entire play-action identity – has evaporated. Add in a possible knee issue for Baker, and the magic’s gone.

Allen is 13-6 ATS in his career after scoring 16 or fewer points the week prior, and Buffalo’s in classic rebound territory. We still love Baker as a dog, but this week, something feels off. If new injury info drops, we’ll reassess. Until then, it’s a stay-away.

Jaguars (+2.5) vs Chargers

Every instinct screams fade the Chargers, but Trevor Lawrence’s recent play makes that tough. The Jags’ defense is coming off an emotional collapse, and that’s rarely a buy signal. Still, we like the setup at +3 if you can get it – not a conviction pick, but a valuable lean.

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Rams (-3) vs Seahawks

We’re standing tall on this one. McVay versus Seattle has been a goldmine: 11-2 ATS since 2019. Stafford’s 5-0 straight up in the matchup, and the Rams’ discipline (zero penalties last week) shows how in-sync they are right now.

Seattle’s weakness defending tight ends lines up perfectly with the Rams’ heavy multi-TE usage. The public loves the Seahawks. The professionals love the Rams. So do we. Rams -3 is our Brass Balls Bet of the Week.

Cardinals (+3) vs 49ers

Jacoby Brissett’s steadiness gives Arizona life. Even without Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride’s emergence keeps this offense balanced. San Francisco’s pass rush has cooled, and defensively, they’re softer up the middle.

The number alone makes Arizona worth a play. It’s a gross bet, but that makes it sharp.

Chad’s Choice: Browns (+7.5) vs Ravens

We hit +8.5 early, but still love the Browns above seven. Cleveland’s defense is ferocious at home, allowing 30% fewer points and rushing yards than on the road. If Lamar’s knee really is barking, this could be ugly.

Myles Garrett is the great equalizer, and the dog pound will be loud. The pros are in agreement: Browns or bust.

Broncos (+3.5) vs Chiefs

We wanted to make this Simon Says this week, but couldn’t quite get there. Denver’s defense has quietly been one of the league’s best since midseason, and Sean Payton teams usually bounce back after ugly offensive showings. Still, Mahomes off a bye is a dangerous fade. We’ll lean Broncos +3.5, but lightly.

Eagles (-2.5) vs Lions (Sunday Night Football)

The public loves Detroit, but this is exactly where Philly thrives – under a cloud of drama. Jalen Hurts looks composed, the defensive line is deep again, and Nick Sirianni somehow keeps winning.

Goff indoors? Dangerous. Outdoors, on back-to-back road games? Not so much. We’ll take the more proven team at home.

Raiders (+3.5) vs Cowboys (Monday Night Football)

This one’s not for the faint of heart. The pros want nothing to do with it, but we can’t shake the feeling the number’s too high. Dallas has struggled all year as a big favorite, and the Raiders’ pass rush – led by a fired-up Maxx Crosby – can keep this close. It’s ugly, uncomfortable, and exactly the kind of side that usually covers.

Panthers (+3.5) at Falcons

Sharp money pounced on Carolina for good reason. Atlanta’s coming off an overtime game overseas – a scheduling death sentence – and their offense remains a mystery. The Panthers are ugly, yes, but motivated. Ugly dogs cover. Carolina makes the card.

Sharp or Square Picks: Week 11

Our shortlist heading into the weekend:

• Rams -3 vs Seahawks (Brass Balls Bet)
• Browns +7.5 vs Ravens (Chad’s Choice)
• Bengals +5 at Steelers
• Texans -6.5 at Titans
• Panthers +3.5 vs Falcons
• Cardinals +3 vs 49ers
• Eagles -2.5 vs Lions
• Raiders +3.5 vs Cowboys

As the NFL season charges into full swing, Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook is turning up the volume with a fresh set of record-chasing prop markets that celebrate some of the league’s most explosive playmakers. From rising stars to established backs, these new wagers invite fans to bet on greatness — because some records are meant to be broken.

Let’s take a closer look at the latest exclusive futures that could rewrite the record books this season. Visit the NFL Specials tab within the Hard Rock Bet app to check them out for yourself.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba to Break the Single-Season Receiving Yards Record (+700)

The bar is sky-high on this one — 1,964 yards high, to be exact — set by Calvin “Megatron” Johnson in 2012. The Detroit legend’s record has stood for over a decade, surviving challenges from Cooper Kupp (1,947 yards in 2021) and Tyreek Hill (1,799 in 2023).

But Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the talent and system to make a real run at it. With elite route running, growing chemistry in Seattle’s offense, and 17 games to work with, the third-year wideout has emerged as a real threat to the record. JSN’s is averaging 115.7 yards per game through 9 contests in 2025, which would put him right on pace to break the record by just a couple of yards. Bettors can back him to break the record today at +700.

Jonathan Taylor to Break the Single-Season Touchdown Record (32+) (+900)

LaDainian Tomlinson’s legendary 31-touchdown season in 2006 remains one of the most dominant campaigns ever. That year, “L.T.” seemed to score at will — a mix of vision, patience, and red-zone magic.

Now, Jonathan Taylor steps into the spotlight with a chance to go one better. Healthy, rejuvenated, and reclaiming his role as Indy’s workhorse, Taylor is the centerpiece of a touchdown-heavy offense and an MVP favorite. +900 odds reflect the challenge at hand, chasing history should never come easy.

Jonathan Taylor to Break the Single-Season Rushing Record (2,106+ yards) (+1000)

Eric Dickerson’s 2,105-yard masterpiece from 1984 has endured for 40 years. The closest anyone has come? Adrian Peterson’s 2,097-yard effort in 2012.

Taylor already led the league with 1,811 yards in 2021 — as a 22-year-old. With a rebuilt offensive line and renewed motivation, a return to that form (and a weather-friendly dome schedule down the stretch) could put the record within striking distance. It’s a big ask, but if anyone has the blend of durability and explosiveness, it’s Taylor. We’ve got JT to break the rushing record at +1000.

Emeka Egbuka to Break the Single-Season Rookie Receiving Yards Record (1,487+) (+1600)

Puka Nacua’s rookie campaign in 2023 redefined what “instant impact” looks like — 1,486 yards, shattering the old record set by Bill Groman way back in 1960.

Now, Ohio State product Emeka Egbuka has entered the league with a similar blend of smooth route-running and toughness after the catch. With key injuries to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving, Egbuka has assumed an enormous role in the Bucs offense. Through nine games he’s averaged 75.2 yards per game, which would put him slightly under the necessary pace. However, a flurry to end the season and the margin could narrow quickly. This one is currently priced at +1600.

Emeka Egbuka to Break the Single-Season Rookie Receiving TD Record (18+) (+5000)

Randy Moss’ rookie season in 1998 — 17 touchdowns — still stands as the gold standard for wideout debuts. That year, Moss made defenders look like background extras in his highlight reel and in the near-30 years since, nobody has come close.

Egbuka may not have Moss’ size, but he has an NFL-ready polish, red-zone savvy, and role that could provide a path. Breaking that record would take the perfect storm — elite QB chemistry, consistent targets, and a few long scores. Through nine games Egbuka has six touchdowns so he’d have to pick it up over the back half of the season, but hey, it’s +5000 (50-1).

Rock the Record Book

Whether you’re betting on Taylor’s power, Smith-Njigba’s precision, or Egbuka’s emergence, these record-chasing markets are a chance to join the story of the season.

Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook has tons of NFL betting markets available around the clock. From Super Bowl odds, to weekly moneyline, spreads, and totals. Place your bets, tune in, and see who’ll make history.

We went 3-2 with our five favorite picks last week – good, not great, but steady. Thanks to Simon, our Sunday morning conversation led us to pull the Niners and put in the Eagles, a move that helped us avoid back-to-back losing weeks. The lesson? Early-week positions aren’t sacred. Information changes. Injury reports, weather, and line movement all matter.

Jets (+11.5) at Patriots (Thursday Night Football)

Yes, it’s gross. Yes, you’ll hate yourself for watching. But this number’s out of control. New England’s the better team right now, but Thursday night games lean toward chaos and inflated favorites get punished on short weeks.

This one definitely won’t be in our final five, but it’s the definition of a letdown/trap spot.

Bengals (+4.5) at Steelers

This one almost became Chad’s Choice. We both thought the number was wrong – why isn’t this three? I grabbed Cincinnati at +5.5, betting that Joe Flacco and the Bengals’ receivers could torch a shaky Steelers secondary that survives on turnover luck. The line has since dropped to +4.5, which told us the sharps agreed. Two flawed teams, but Cincinnati feels like the right side.

Texans (-7) at Titans

Assuming C.J. Stroud clears protocol, this is a mismatch. Houston crushed Tennessee earlier in the season, and the Titans haven’t found a pulse since.

The Texans can run the ball, and Tennessee can’t stop it. If Jeffery Simmons remains out, it could get ugly – again.

Packers (-7.5) at Giants

Brian Daboll’s gone, and New York’s officially in teardown mode. The Giants can’t stop the run either, and Green Bay can lean on Josh Jacobs to pound them into submission.

The Packers aren’t elite, but they’re good enough to exploit a defense that ranks near dead last against the rush. Big number or not, this is the right side.

Buccaneers (+5.5) at Bills

This line makes no sense. Tampa’s loss last week was ugly, but two fluke runs accounted for most of New England’s rushing yardage.

Baker Mayfield’s missing weapons, but Buffalo’s defense is still reeling from injuries. The Bills are overvalued on name alone – take the points with a gritty Bucs team that plays better than it looks on paper.

Jaguars (+3) vs Chargers

We’ve been here before: the Chargers win, look competent, and sucker us into trusting them. Then they fall flat. Not this time.

Jacksonville’s defense can force Herbert into bad spots, and Trevor Lawrence plays his best football at home.

Ugly? Sure. But ugly wins.

Seahawks (+2.5) at Rams

Seattle’s defense is legit, and they can pressure Stafford right up the middle – his kryptonite. The Rams’ offense is explosive, but their protection’s shaky.

This line dropped from 3 to 2.5, but if it bounces back to a field goal, Seattle’s the sharp side.

Cardinals (+2.5) vs 49ers

The 49ers’ injuries keep piling up, and divisional underdogs with heart are always dangerous. Arizona got embarrassed last week but quietly outplayed Seattle after the early turnovers.

This is a bounce-back, undervalued spot for a team that fights to the final whistle.

Chad’s Choice: Browns (+8) vs Ravens

Baltimore’s been rolling, and the public loves them – which is why it’s time to fade them. The Browns’ defense is a monster at home, and this number’s simply too high.

Dillon Gabriel might not light up the scoreboard, but Cleveland can muck this game up and make Lamar Jackson earn every yard. It’s a divisional slugfest, and 8+ points is too rich to ignore.

Simon Says: Raiders (+3.5) vs Cowboys

Dallas can roll anyone – except when they’re supposed to. The Raiders are still fighting hard for Pete Carroll, and while they looked flat on offense last week, this is a spot that screams letdown for the Cowboys.

Every time Dallas is favored by more than a field goal on the road, they fall short. The Raiders have Brock Bowers back and now he gets to face a Dallas defense that can’t stop tight ends over the middle. Expect a high-effort, gritty cover in Vegas.

Eagles (-2) vs Lions (Sunday Night Football)

Detroit’s everyone’s darling – and that’s exactly when you fade them. Philly’s offense may look messy, but they win tight games and control the trenches.

Jalen Hurts remains calm through it all, and that’s what matters in primetime. The Eagles’ newly-formed defensive line should rattle Jared Goff just enough to cover a short spread.

Sharp or Square Picks for Week 11

Simon Says: Raiders +3.5
Chad’s Choice: Browns +8
Additional Leans: Bengals +5.5, Texans -7, Seahawks +2.5, Buccaneers +5.5, Cardinals +3, Broncos +3.5, Eagles -2

Final Thoughts

The deeper we go into November, the uglier the board gets. Week 11 is all about patience, discomfort, and discipline. Bet the numbers, not the logos – and remember: the sharpest bets rarely feel safe when you make them.

All bettors dream about building the perfect slip. Carefully crafting a massive parlay, sweeping an entire slate and turning a couple of bucks into a life changing sum. Well, a Florida sports bettor from Delray Beach did just that on Hard Rock Bet over the weekend, going 17 for 17 and in the process transforming an initial $15 stake into $843,490.71 with a college football parlay for the record books.

The $843K parlay ticket

This incredible ticket consisted of thirteen point spreads and four over/under bets from the weekend’s college football slate, including a mix of favorites and underdogs from a variety of conferences. In total the final odds came in at +5623171. Yes, you read that correctly… plus 5,623,171. Here’s the ticket in full:

1. Georgia -9.5
2. BYU @ Texas Tech Under 51.5
3. Indiana @ Penn State Under 49.5
4. Syracuse +28.5
5. Texas A&M -6.5
6. Iowa +6.5
7. Clemson -1.5
8. Alabama -10.5
9. Florida @ Kentucky Over 44.5
10. West Virginia -5.5
11. Iowa State @ TCU Under 57.5
12. Vanderbilt -6.5
13. Wisconsin +10.5
14. California +18.5
15. Nebraska +0.5
16. Air Force +5.5
17. Coastal Carolina -7.5

An $800,000 sweat

As with any 17-leg parlay, there are going to be close calls… and this ticket proved no different. You could point to Indiana and Penn State’s 21-point fourth quarter, punctuated by Omar Cooper Jr.’s highlight reel catch pushing the game over 49.5 points as the moment things could have gone awry. You could look at Syracuse securing a backdoor cover with a meaningless 17-yard touchdown (and crucial extra point) with seconds on the clock to cut the lead to just 28, covering 28.5, or Alabama only managing 20 total points, but still finding a way to cover 10.5 as being particularly fortuitous. But in the end, the bet got home… and with a payout that could pay for a home.

If you watched any football at all this weekend, you might still be trying to process what happened. For bettors, the madness started early and didn’t stop until late Sunday night. By the time the dust settled, we were 2-2 heading into Monday, equal parts relieved and exasperated. The board was littered with bad beats, brilliant coaching, and questionable quarterback play. Let’s get into it.

Baltimore Shows Why Patience Pays

We’ll start where we got it right: Baltimore. We backed the Ravens at -3.5 because, as we’ve been saying for weeks, JJ McCarthy isn’t ready to lead a team through adversity. His early touchdown drive looked sharp, but once the adrenaline wore off, he became the player we expected – hesitant, inaccurate, and rattled by Baltimore’s pressure. Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, reminded everyone why experience matters. He started slow, found his rhythm, and eventually dismantled a Vikings team that committed eight false starts – at home. That’s not nerves; that’s a team getting bullied.

The Ravens’ win wasn’t pretty, but it validated what we preach every week: trust the fundamentals. McCarthy’s hype was inflated. Baltimore’s defense was real.

Vrabel’s Masterclass

Our worst read came in Tampa Bay. The line didn’t move all week, and every sharp voice in the room was waving red flags. We ignored them. That’s on us.

What unfolded was a Mike Vrabel clinic in coaching composure and clock management. Facing Tampa’s veteran defense, rookie Drake Maye played like a young Carson Wentz – reckless but electric. He made just enough big throws to remind you why he’s special, including a dart in the end zone that broke the game open. The real star, though, was running back TreyVeon Henderson, who ripped off a 69-yard touchdown run so fast he had time to look at the sideline mid-sprint and ask whether he should score or slide.

That moment said it all: New England is disciplined, confident, and terrifyingly efficient. Tampa, meanwhile, looked lost schematically. Todd Bowles’ defense – once a strength – was gashed repeatedly by a rookie running back who’d been silent most of the season.

The Dolphins Dream Spot

If you listened last week, you heard Simon pounding the table for Miami +9.5. He saw something that most bettors missed: a perfect situational spot.

The Dolphins didn’t need Tua to win; they needed to run. Devon Achane responded with 174 rushing yards and made Buffalo’s defense look like they were in slow motion. Tua only threw 21 passes all game because he didn’t have to. Every time Josh Allen looked poised to rally, he found new ways to implode: redzone picks, missed reads, bizarre fumbles. It was the same pattern we’ve seen all season: flashes of brilliance from Allen surrounded by long stretches of dysfunction.

Miami, on the other hand, looked like a team that knows exactly who it is at home. The win wasn’t fluky – it was a statement. And yes, Simon gets his flowers for that one.

Arizona, the Lost Cause

Then there were the Cardinals. We loved them at +6.5. We shouldn’t have. When you’re down 21-0 in the first quarter, your bet is already dead. Jacoby Brissett looked immobile, the offensive line forgot its job description, and Seattle’s defense turned into a touchdown factory. It happens – but it’s painful when you can spot the loss before halftime. Some games deserve a postmortem; this one deserves a burial.

The Ones That Got Away

We also had games that made us look smart… and stubborn. We talked all week about the Texans and the Jets – two ugly, undervalued underdogs that fit our model of “betting on discomfort.” Both won outright. We didn’t put them in the final five. That’s what stings. Houston, especially, was a roller coaster: down 29-10, then ripping off 26 fourth-quarter points to stun Jacksonville. It was classic Jags – everything fine until suddenly it wasn’t.

And how about those Jets? We said it wasn’t a bet on them, but a bet against Dillon Gabriel. We were right. They won despite Justin Fields completing only six passes. Sometimes that’s enough when your special teams score twice and the opponent collapses.

The Stafford Renaissance

Before we sign off, we have to tip our caps to Matthew Stafford. Four touchdowns, zero picks, and total control against a 49ers defense that looked shell-shocked. At 37, he’s playing the best football of his career – commanding, calm, unbothered. There’s a reason he’s creeping into MVP contention. We said before the season that if the Rams stayed healthy, they’d be dangerous. Right now, they’re terrifying.

Sharp or Square Picks: Early Week 11 Leans

We head into next week with our eyes on some juicy dogs: Cleveland +8.5 against Baltimore, Jaguars +1.5, Broncos +3.5, Arizona +3 if you can stomach it, and maybe even the Commanders in Madrid. The lesson from this weekend is simple: don’t overreact to blowouts. Momentum in the NFL lasts about as long as a field goal attempt.

We’ll take our 2-2 record, hope the Eagles close it out on Monday night, and move on. Betting isn’t about perfection; it’s about surviving variance with sanity intact. And after a Sunday like that, sanity feels like the biggest win of all.

It’s Week 10 in the NFL, and the board is a wild one. Trade deadline moves have shaken the market, lines are swinging wildly, and sharp money is showing up in some surprising places. Every Thursday, we break it all down: where the pros are leaning, which numbers still hold value, and which teams are being overhyped by the public.

 

Sharp Calls

This week’s Sharp Calls started with surprise: heavy professional money coming in on the Chargers. We get it – Justin Herbert shines in night games and the market loves his arm – but that line feels inflated. Losing Joe Alt on the offensive line and facing a Steelers defense that thrives in grind-it-out games? We’d lean Pittsburgh.

Then there’s the Patriots-Buccaneers matchup. We liked the Bucs at -2.5 and thought this number would climb, yet its resistance tells us the market expects a close game. Still, we’re sticking with Tampa Bay, who is not only coming into this one rested off its bye week, but also should be getting several key players back from injury.

Broncos (-9.5) vs Raiders

We’re both riding with the Broncos. The wise guys may think it’s too many points in a divisional game on a short week, but that defense can suffocate a one-dimensional Raiders offense fresh off an overtime loss to Jacksonville. 

We can’t start the week 0-1, so we need this one. As our old friend Bob Scucci would say, we need this one for our lungs – we are currently underwater.

Giants (+4) at Bears

A lot of pros came in on Chicago this week, which stunned us. The Giants look like the right side: the Bears’ pass defense leaks yardage and most of their wins have come through turnover luck. But weather could tilt things – if snow or rain hit Soldier Field, Chicago’s run-heavy scheme gives them a major advantage. We’ll be patient, watch the forecasts, and maybe even grab the total (under 46.5) before kickoff.

Jets (+2) vs Browns

The Jets traded away two defensive stars in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams on Tuesday, yet sharp money moved toward them once this number hit +2.5. It’s less about faith in the Jets as it is distrust of Dillon Gabriel and the Browns’ offense.

Yes, New York’s front office has waved the white flag, but the players on the field are still auditioning for next year and should continue to play hard. We like New York in this one.

Texans (+1) vs Jaguars

We told listeners to wait until Houston became an underdog against Jacksonville and that patience was rewarded. We’re not running to back Davis Mills, but with a week to prepare, he’s competent enough to complement a defense that keeps games close. The line climbing toward +2 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook tells us the public can’t quit the Jags – we’ll happily take the value on Houston.

Brass Balls Bet of the Week: Cardinals (+6.5) at Seahawks

Our Brass Balls Bet of the Week is the Arizona Cardinals +6.5 at Seattle. Jonathan Gannon’s decision to bench Kyler Murray for Jacoby Brissett looks gutsy, but the locker room has clearly responded to Brissett’s steadiness. The public can’t seem to shake off Seattle, yet the Seahawks’ home-field advantage is long gone. Since 2021, teams traveling to Seattle on a short week are 7-1 straight up and against the spread. We love this one at +6.5.

49ers (+4) vs Rams

This is the divisional chess match of the week: Shanahan vs. McVay. Every year, the numbers tell the same story: McVay just can’t solve this one on the road. He’s 1-7 SU and ATS in San Francisco.

The 49ers, even with injuries, hold the schematic edge. Their front seven can dictate tempo, and Mac Jones doesn’t have to be great – he just has to be on time. San Francisco tends to stumble after big wins, but this line’s too large to ignore.

Dolphins (+9) vs Bills

Every week feels like buy-low time on the Dolphins, and this might be the best spot yet. In back-to-back home games, Tua Tagovailoa is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS following a blowout loss. When he’s an underdog in this spot, he’s 3-0 both SU and ATS. Josh Allen, meanwhile, is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite of more than 7.5 points in his career. The Bills are banged up, James Cook’s status uncertain, and the Miami heat still matters in November. It’s a classic contrarian play: nobody wants them, so we do. Miami +9 is in the mix for our final five.

Sharp or Square Picks: Week 10

Our short list heading into the weekend:

• Broncos -9.5 vs Raiders
• Buccaneers -2.5 vs Patriots
• Jets +2 vs Browns
• Texans +1 vs Jaguars
• Cardinals +6.5 at Seahawks (Brass Balls)
• 49ers +4 vs Rams
• Dolphins +9 vs Bills

The season’s flying by – the clocks have turned, the air’s colder, and the football actually matters now. As we hit Week 10, we’re shaking off last week’s worst showing of the year (1-4, thanks for asking) and trying to find value without overcorrecting. Favorites buried us last week, so we’re hunting edges and redemption.

Below are our early leans, gut calls, and sharp angles for every matchup on the board: the games we’ve been sweating, studying, and sometimes eating midnight pasta over.

Simon Says: Broncos (-8.5) vs Raiders

This is a classic get-right spot for Denver. The Raiders come in after an overtime war and could be in full sell mode by kickoff. Short-week divisional underdogs usually tempt us, but not this time – the Broncos’ defense should dominate, and the matchup screams blowout.

Falcons (+5) vs Colts (Berlin, Germany)

Atlanta was 1-for-10 on third downs last week, but Drake London changed their whole offense. Michael Penix Jr. is still too inconsistent to trust, but the Falcons’ defense plays opportunistically enough to keep this neutral-site game close. At six or better, we’d take Atlanta.

Dolphins (+9.5) vs Bills

Every sharp bone in our bodies says to take Miami, even if we don’t want to. The Bills can’t stop the run, and this is an Achane showcase spot. The number’s inflated, and the Dolphins off extra rest should hang around long enough to cover.

Giants (+3.5) at Bears

The Bears’ defense keeps making average quarterbacks look elite, and this feels like another setup for that. Jaxson Dart can exploit soft coverage underneath, and his mobility gives them a path. With the hook, the G-Men have the edge here.

Panthers (-5) vs Saints

We’ve moved from the “Love the Saints” phase to the “Love the Panthers” phase of the season. Carolina runs the ball better, plays tougher at home, and Bryce Young’s growing into a gamer. Unless the number climbs above five, this one leans Carolina.

Jets (-1.5) vs Browns

Grab this before it moves. The Browns’ offense is hopeless without a quarterback, and their defense isn’t the same away from home. The Jets’ speed on turf creates just enough explosive play potential to tilt the matchup.

Texans (-1) vs Jaguars

It’s tough backing a team with a backup QB, but it’s even tougher trusting Trevor Lawrence on the road off a big win. Houston’s defense forces turnovers and stays in every game. If the Texans flip to a home underdog, we’re buyers.

Chad’s Choice: Buccaneers (-2.5) vs Patriots

This line is short, and we love it. Baker Mayfield was Drake May before Drake Maye – the surprising MVP dark horse nobody saw coming. Tampa’s healthier, rested, and a step up in class for New England. This is a perfect home favorite bounce-back spot.

Ravens (-4) at Vikings

Lamar Jackson owns NFC defenses, and the Vikings’ blitz-heavy scheme is tailor-made for him to torch. Baltimore’s defense is rounding into form again, and this number should climb. The early three was a gift; even at four, the Ravens are the side.

Lions (-8.5) at Commanders

Detroit burned us last week, but this is a bounce-back spot. Washington’s defense is atrocious, their head coach looks lost, and the Lions’ offense should do whatever it wants. The number’s big, but so is the mismatch.

49ers (+3.5) vs Rams

San Francisco’s defense is decimated, and that’s a problem against Matthew Stafford. Still, this line seems wrong – a half-point swing toward a shorthanded team suggests sharp money lurking. Ugly dog, but that’s often where value hides.

Steelers (+3) at Chargers

The Chargers can’t protect Justin Herbert, and that’s fatal against T.J. Watt and company. Pittsburgh lives off turnover luck and pressure, and this matchup gives them both. Anything over +3 makes the Steelers worth the play.

Packers (-2.5) vs Eagles

This is the buy-low, sell-high game of the week. Everyone loves the Eagles after their trade splurge, but Green Bay’s better than it’s looked. The line stinks – which is why the sharp side is the Packers at home.

Sharp or Square Picks for Week 10

Simon Says: Broncos -8.5
Chad’s Choice: Buccaneers -2.5
Additional Leans: Jets, Panthers, Ravens, Giants, Packers.

Final Thoughts

Football’s cruel. You can handicap perfectly and still lose to a backup quarterback. Week 10’s lines are tricky, the public’s still chasing favorites, and value’s hiding in the ugly spots.

If this season’s taught us anything, it’s that the best bets are the ones that make you uncomfortable – and that nothing warms a cold Sunday like a sharp side that cashes.