It’s time for the Hard Rock Bet Play of the Day, and we’re heading back to one of my favorite angles — a familiar coach, a motivated team, and a first-half total that feels just a little too light.

I’m 3-1 so far with the Hard Rock Bet plays, and I’m returning to the spot where it all began: the Creighton Bluejays’ first-half team total.

A Familiar Face on the Opposite Sideline

Creighton faces North Dakota, a college basketball matchup with a little built-in history. Head coach Greg McDermott started his career coaching at North Dakota (then the Fighting Sioux, now the Fighting Hawks), so there’s some natural familiarity and pride involved here.

McDermott’s teams have always been built to shoot, and that’s what makes this game intriguing. Through the early part of the season, the Jays have struggled to find rhythm from beyond the arc, and they’ve heard about it — loudly. Heading into a neutral-site run against Baylor and Iowa State in Las Vegas, this feels like the night to get right.

• The Bet: Creighton Bluejays 1H Team Total Over 45.5 (-104)

Creighton’s full-game team total sits around 91.5 points, but that’s too high in what should become a one-sided game. Instead, the value sits in the first-half number: 45.5 points.

Yes, the Jays are averaging just 41 first-half points so far, and the raw numbers don’t necessarily scream “over.” But the context matters. Against a North Dakota defense they should completely outclass, I’m expecting Creighton to come out focused and shooting confidently.

They’ve been frustrated by poor three-point shooting early in the year, but this offense is designed to live behind the arc — and open looks should be plentiful tonight.

KenPom projects roughly 90 points overall for Creighton, and if they’re going to clear that, the surge likely starts early. I’m betting they find their groove quickly.

The Rest of Today’s Card

• CMU vs. KSU Over 49 (1.1 units) – Expecting both teams to move the ball effectively and find scoring consistency.
• Bruins vs. Ducks 1st Period Over 1.5 (-135) – Fast pace early and plenty of offensive talent on both sides.
• UConn 1H -3.5 vs. Arizona – I like first half the spread here. A heavyweight non-conference battle; the Huskies’ efficiency gives them an edge before halftime.

Follow me on X @SportsTalkMatt, and catch The Daily Juice every morning wherever you get your podcasts.

Devin Booker and Desmond Bane sold us yesterday, so I’m back today with another Crash Out Parlay.

 

B Hen’s Crash Out Parlay for Wednesday, November 19

Forget the players this time – I’m going with a few teams on the moneyline tonight.

Six teams, all winners. $100 pays over $1500 if everyone comes through.

Hornets ML (-120)

Charlotte’s quietly been showing signs of life, and this is a perfect spot for them to capitalize. Their young core is clicking, LaMelo’s tempo is dictating the game, and Miles Bridges has rediscovered his rhythm. Against a team that struggles to contain dribble penetration, the Hornets’ drive-and-kick game should carve up the defense. If they can limit turnovers, this one tilts their way.

Sixers ML (+100)

Philly as an underdog is always tempting – especially with the way Tyrese Maxey is playing. The Sixers’ offense hums when he pushes pace. Defensively, they’ll pack the paint and dare opponents to win from the outside. If their shooters knock them down, this is tremendous value at even money.

Thunder ML (-2000)

This leg is your parlay glue. OKC is a powerhouse right now – playing with confidence, spacing, and relentless energy. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is nearly unguardable in isolation, and the Thunder’s defense suffocates weaker offenses. Expect a statement game that keeps this one stress-free.

Warriors ML (+185)

Golden State thrives in games like this – high intensity, big moments, and underdog odds. Stephen Curry is due for one of those “don’t blink” explosions, and Draymond Green’s defensive presence keeps them competitive in any setting. If the supporting cast hits timely shots, this could easily swing the parlay’s value. A live upset spot worth taking.

Nuggets ML (-950)

Denver is one of the most consistent teams in the league for a reason. Nikola Jokić makes the game look effortless, and the Nuggets’ half-court execution is elite. Even if they start slow, expect them to wear down their opponent with superior spacing and ball movement. This is your steady anchor leg.

Knicks ML (-300)

New York’s defense is built to grind opponents down. Additionally, Jalen Brunson could return tonight against Dallas, and the team is hungry for its first road win of the season. Expect a methodical, professional win to close out the ticket.

We’re coming to you from a precarious hotel setup—laptop balanced on an upside-down ice bucket, light clipped to the screen, Wi-Fi doing its best. The Week 12 card is full of ugly numbers, classic overreactions, and a few “we’ve seen this movie” situational spots. Let’s run through the slate, covering where we are leaning right now for Week 12. As always, all NFL odds referenced are courtesy of Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Thursday: Bills (-6) at Texans

Short week, quarterback uncertainty for Houston (C.J. Stroud still in protocol), and the usual TNF tumult. Houston’s night-game history is rough (18–31 straight up, 15–32 against the spread). Early money—pros and public—lining up on Buffalo makes sense. We’d prefer -5.5 if you can still find it; -6 is acceptable. We’re not eager to stand in front of Josh Allen if he’s on a heater.

• Lean: Bills (prefer -5.5; -6 fine)

Seahawks (-13) at Titans

We bet Seattle early (grabbed -12.5). This is the rare spot where we don’t auto-take a big home dog. Seattle’s defense is buttoned-up and the passing game should torch a vulnerable secondary. The Seahawks have covered well this season and they bully bad teams. As long as it’s under 14, we’re good.

• Lean: Seahawks (< 14).

Steelers (+3) at Bears

This is a number play. Tomlin’s recent skid as a road dog (four straight SU/ATS losses) meets a Bears team living right in one-score games. Historically, teams that win three straight by 5 or fewer tend to regress the following week (12–23 ATS over the last 20 years). It pains us, but the value is the value.

• Lean: Steelers +3.

Giants at Lions (-10.5)

Bounce-back Detroit is a long-term winner. After failing to convert a fourth down, the Lions are 9–1 straight up, 8–2 ATS, covering by ~10 points per game. Under Dan Campbell with Jared Goff off a straight-up loss they’re 22–8 ATS—and they’ve covered 13 in a row in that spot. Indoors, favorable trench matchup versus a Giants defense that doesn’t stop the run like Philly just did.

• Lean: Lions -10.5 (we’re comfortable up to -11.5).

Jets at Ravens (-13.5)

We can’t stomach the Jets. The Ravens have historically dominated this matchup, and Lamar as a big favorite has been a covering machine. That said, we’re already lining up several favorites; this could be a contest/pool lean more than a must-bet.

• Lean: Ravens or pass.

Patriots at Bengals (+7.5)

This one is purely the number + spot. If Joe Flacco starts, Bengals +7.5 is a no-brainer for us. If it’s not Flacco, we’ll likely pass. Teams on eight-game win streaks cover ~39% since 2010, and the road spot is worse; regression is real in the NFL. There’s no on-field defensive case for Cincy—we’re playing math and market.

• Lean: Bengals +7.5 (Flacco only); otherwise pass.

Colts (+3.5) at Chiefs

Scheme matters. The defensive structure that used to frustrate Mahomes in Cincinnati shows up in Indianapolis now, and a well-coached team off a bye is exactly the kind of edge we want against this year’s Chiefs (0–5 in one-score games). Mahomes has historically struggled against Indy. We want the hook.

• Lean: Colts +3.5 preferred (small lean at +3 if you must).

Vikings at Packers (GB -6.5)

We don’t trust either side at this number. Pros keep nudging it off 7, but trusting an inconsistent rookie QB on the road is tough, and laying near a touchdown with the Packers isn’t where we want to live.

• Lean: Pass (would consider Vikings at +7).

Browns at Raiders (-3)

This is Chad’s kind of ugly favorite: Raiders -3. Cleveland gives up ~10 more points per game on the road. The Browns’ QB making his first start is a fade we’ve ridden for years—Browns are 0–17 in that scenario since Eric Zeier (1995). We respect Cleveland’s defense at home; we fade the travel drop-off. If this ticks to -3.5, we get more cautious on the spread and lean moneyline Raiders.

• Lean: Raiders -3 (ML heavy if -3.5).

Jaguars at Cardinals (+2.5)

We want the home dog off a blowout. The Jaguars’ big win over the Chargers was run-driven; the staff clearly throttled down Lawrence (14/22 for 153 with a pick). This is the classic spot where the market loves the team that just won big and undervalues the one that just got embarrassed. There’s a trend lane here that’s been unkind to teams in Jacksonville’s position the following week.

• Lean: Cardinals +2.5 (prefer +3).

Falcons at Saints (-2)

We’d like to fade New Orleans, but Kirk Cousins’ trend profile—recent ATS cold streak and Superdome struggles—keeps us off Atlanta. Not everything needs a ticket.

• Lean: Pass.

Cowboys at Eagles (-3)

This is one of the hardest caps of the week. If Lane Johnson is out, Philly’s offense historically downgrades; if he’s in, that shifts our comfort. We think the market may be over-inflating Dallas’ defensive rebound and discounting Philadelphia’s offense. If books hold at -3, that’s telling; if it hits -2.5, it’s tough to avoid the Birds.

• Lean: Number watch. -3 is a fair Eagles buy

Sunday Night: Buccaneers at Rams (-6.5)

The number feels big, but the trend/data stack points to Rams. McVay after divisional games has been profitable ATS, while Baker at night as a sizable dog has been rough historically. Tampa’s offense wasn’t the problem last week—Buffalo/Josh Allen were—but the matchup and prime-time splits steer us one direction.

• Lean: Rams -6.5 (reluctantly).

Monday Night: Panthers (+6.5) at 49ers

We grabbed Carolina +7 and still like +6.5. San Francisco’s secondary keeps leaking explosive plays, and Bryce Young’s mobility/accuracy can punish that. The broader ATS profile for the 49ers as inflated home favorites has been poor since late 2023, especially in the “win & cover on road, then favored at home” lane. Yes, Carolina’s post-30-point game trend is ugly, but this is a fade of SF’s market tax as much as anything.

• Lean: Panthers +7/6.5.

Early Stack (Subject to Injury/Number Movement)

• Stronger: Seahawks (<14), Lions (-10.5), Steelers (+3), Cardinals (+3/2.5), Panthers (+7/6.5)
• With conditions/price: Bills (-5.5/ -6), Bengals (+7.5 Flacco only), Colts (+3.5), Rams (-6.5), Eagles (-3 number watch)
• Pass (for now): Vikings/Packers, Falcons/Saints, Jets/Ravens (pool lean Ravens)

We’ll refine as the week develops with injuries and totals/side movement.

After a few days off, I’m back with another Crash Out Parlay.

 

B Hen’s Crash Out Parlay for Tuesday, November 18

This lineup is packed with certified bucket-getters who can take over any given night. The payout? +2294, which means a $100 bet would return over $2,300 if everyone shows up and does what they do best. Let’s break it down.

Stephen Curry Over 24.5 Points (-185)

Steph’s been quiet by his standards lately – which usually means an explosion is coming. Orlando’s defense has been solid, but Curry has a history of torching young, aggressive units that over-help. Expect him to find rhythm early with a barrage of threes. When the Chef starts cooking, 25+ is easy.

Desmond Bane Over 24.5 Points (+260)

This one is a little risky, but hear me out – Bane’s shot volume and confidence will get going. Against a team that struggles to defend the perimeter, this is a green-light game. Expect a steady diet of step-backs, drives, and trips to the line.

Jalen Johnson Over 19.5 Points (-155)

Johnson’s breakout campaign keeps rolling. He’s aggressive, attacking mismatches and cutting hard off the ball. Detroit’s defense gives up plenty of clean looks in transition, and that’s Johnson’s bread and butter. If he stays out of foul trouble, he’s cruising past 20 again.

Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 Points (-165)

JB’s rhythm has been sharp, and this matchup sets up perfectly. Brooklyn’s wing defense lacks the physicality to keep Brown out of the paint. Expect him to bully his way to the rim, hit midrange pull-ups, and cash a few corner threes. Another 25+ performance is well within reach.

Luka Dončić Over 24.5 Points (-425)

When Luka faces a big stage, he delivers. The Jazz will throw doubles at him, but he’s seen it all before. His size and patience let him pick spots – and with the way he’s shooting the step-back three right now, 25 feels automatic. Luka’s the safest anchor leg in this parlay.

Devin Booker Over 24.5 Points (-300)

Book’s been in pure scoring mode lately. Portland has no one who can match his pace or handle his shot creation. Expect early pull-ups, transition buckets, and a few heat-check threes. He’s capable of dropping 30 in his sleep – we just need 25.

As we roll into another week of NBA action, it’s time to take stock of where teams stand across the league — and what their betting odds are on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook are to win the title. There’s been movement throughout the top 10, with Oklahoma City continuing to look like the league’s gold standard, Denver looking like a threat in the West, and several dark horses emerging.

Let’s dive into this week’s NBA Power Rankings.

10. San Antonio Spurs (+3000)

The Spurs’ 5–0 start now feels like a distant memory. At 4–4 since then, San Antonio’s turnover woes have started to catch up with them — coughing it up on 17% of their possessions over the last eight games, the second-worst rate in the league.

Teams like Phoenix, the Lakers, and Golden State have exposed their lack of ball security and half-court organization. Still, there are positives: De’Aaron Fox bounced back from a rough showing against the Warriors with a sharp 28-point, 11-assist performance versus Sacramento, showing signs of leadership and rhythm.

The Spurs’ early promise has hit its first speed bump — but adversity now could pay dividends later for a young group learning how to win.

9. Atlanta Hawks (+3000)

Winners of five straight, the Hawks are starting to find their balance on both ends. They’re top-six in offensive and defensive rating during this stretch, forcing nearly 19 turnovers per game and converting them into 28 points a night.

The emergence of Jalen Johnson — averaging 23 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists on 60% shooting — has given Atlanta a dynamic new wrinkle. Meanwhile, Onyeka Okongwu has stretched his game beyond the arc, knocking down 41% from three on meaningful volume.

Consistency is the next frontier, but this team looks dangerous — a well-balanced group finally living up to its potential.

8. Golden State Warriors (+1400)

After an embarrassing loss to Oklahoma City, the Warriors responded the way a championship-caliber team should — with grit, defense, and one transcendent Steph Curry performance after another.

Golden State’s three-game win streak included back-to-back road victories in San Antonio and a thrilling 49-point masterpiece from Curry to close the week. His relentless scoring gravity created opportunities everywhere; even role players like Moses Moody have thrived, posting a career-high 32 points in New Orleans.

The Warriors are far from perfect, but this version — engaged, defensive, and centered on peak Steph — is still a force.

7. Cleveland Cavaliers (+750)

Cleveland took a couple of lumps this week, losing to Miami and Toronto, but there’s little panic in Northeast Ohio. Darius Garland’s toe injury was re-aggravated but isn’t considered serious, and the Cavs have held steady thanks to Lonzo Ball’s resurgence — 10-for-17 from deep over the past three games — and solid minutes from Craig Porter in the backcourt.

The Cavs need Garland at full health to unlock their ceiling, but the foundation remains sturdy. If their defense can return to last year’s elite form, they’ll stay firmly in the mix.

6. New York Knicks (+1300)

The Knicks’ week was a roller coaster. They looked flat in an ugly loss to Orlando — a game that exposed some of their old issues in transition defense — and then responded with one of their best offensive outings of the year, dropping 140 points on Miami.

Karl-Anthony Towns and Landry Shamet combined for 75 points, while Tom Thibodeau finally seems to be loosening his grip on the rotation, trusting his bench more. The challenge ahead: depth. With OG Anunoby sidelined by a hamstring strain, the Knicks will need to weather the next stretch with resilience and flexibility.

5. Los Angeles Lakers (+1500)

The Lakers have officially steadied the ship. Their back-to-back wins over New Orleans and Milwaukee were a statement: when locked in defensively, they can look like a contender again.

Luka Doncic torched the Bucks’ defense, drawing double teams and creating efficient four-on-three looks all night. The Lakers’ transition defense was the real story, holding Milwaukee to minimal fast-break opportunities.

At 10–4 despite absences from LeBron James and multiple rotation players, this team is quietly building toward something. Their upcoming soft schedule gives LeBron and company a chance to ramp up without overexertion — just in time to test themselves against the West’s elite.

4. Houston Rockets (+1000)

Houston’s transformation is no fluke. Winners of nine of their last ten, the Rockets are first in offense and eighth in defense, powered by the rise of Alperen Şengün and Kevin Durant, who have formed one of the most effective duos in the league.

Their roster depth — filled with strong, switchable, two-way athletes — gives them lineup versatility most teams can’t match. As long as Şengün continues his ascent and the defense remains disciplined, the Rockets will stay in the contender conversation.

3. Detroit Pistons (+3000)

Yes, you read that right — the Detroit Pistons have arrived. Winners of nine straight, the Pistons have survived injuries to Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren thanks to the emergence of Daniss Jenkins, who’s averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists in their absence.

Paul Reed has been excellent filling in at center, averaging 19 and 11 in the last two games, while Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson have provided crucial spacing and scoring support.

At 11–2, Detroit looks like the breakout team of the early season — big, physical, and surprisingly deep.

2. Denver Nuggets (+550)

Denver’s seven-game win streak culminated with a statement victory — a road domination of Minnesota despite being down two starters. Nikola Jokić continues to redefine efficiency: over his last seven games, he’s averaged 35 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists on 71% shooting and 55% from three.

The Nuggets’ defense, ranked No. 2 in the NBA, has been the true revelation. Even without key contributors, their bench has started to extend leads rather than surrender them — a luxury Denver hasn’t always had.

They’re playing like a team that knows exactly what it takes to win another ring.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (+200)

And once again, the Thunder hold the top spot — and it’s not even close.

Oklahoma City dismantled both the Warriors and Lakers this week, suffocating elite offenses with what might be the best defense of this era. They turn defense into devastating transition attacks, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and AJ Mitchell, who’ve mastered the art of creating advantages early in possessions.

Chet Holmgren’s offensive evolution is the final piece: 19 points per game on 70% true shooting, with elite rim finishing and expanding midrange touch. The Thunder’s blend of length, spacing, and chemistry is unmatched.

Simply put, this looks like the best team in basketball — and right now, the title is theirs to lose.

NFL Week 11 had everything: coaching blunders, redemption arcs, playoff clarity, and a few quarterbacks who melted like snowmen under pressure. Let’s break it all down.

Lions at Eagles

Dan Campbell finally crossed the line from fearless to reckless. Fourth downs piled up like parking tickets, and each one cost Detroit more momentum. Jared Goff, bundled in two gloves and bad decisions, looked frozen in every sense. Philly’s offense was an eyesore, but Vic Fangio’s defense? Terrifying. Jaelan Phillips and the rest of that front seven are monsters – the Eagles have quietly flipped identities from juggernaut offense to sledgehammer defense. And if that unit keeps playing like this, they can win ugly all the way into January.

Seahawks at Rams

Sam Darnold’s “I’m back” campaign hit the wall – hard. Four picks, each uglier than the last, erased a brilliant defensive effort from Mike Macdonald’s group. You could feel the tension: big stage, division on the line, and Darnold blinked. Sean McVay and the Rams smelled blood, attacked his tendencies, and made him see ghosts again. Seattle’s roster is loaded, their scheme sound, but this was a gut-check loss that screamed: they’ll only go as far as their quarterback can take them.

Broncos at Chiefs

Statement win. That’s what this was for Sean Payton and Bo Nix. The young QB looked poised, calm, and unbothered by it all – a far cry from the jittery version we saw two weeks ago. Denver’s defense? Ruthless. They’re on pace to break sack records and break opponents’ will. Kansas City fought hard, but you could feel the tide turn: the Broncos are the best team in football right now. From 1-2 to 9-2 heading into the bye, they’ve gone from punchline to powerhouse. This team looks like it’s hunting the AFC’s top seed.

Bears at Vikings

Ben Johnson is cooking, and Chicago’s finally got juice again. Caleb Williams is chaotic – misses wide-open reads, then spins out of a sack and fires a 40-yard missile that only he sees. The Bears are wild, undisciplined, and alive. Meanwhile, Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings keep trying to force-feed a pass-happy plan to a quarterback who can’t swim in deep water yet. JJ McCarthy’s raw, nervous, and clearly miscast in this system. Chicago’s staff is maximizing its kid. Minnesota’s is exposing theirs.

Cowboys at Raiders: MNF Prediction

Vegas on a Monday night always feels like a trap, and this one reeks of it. Dallas has the better roster, the better quarterback, and the hotter offense, but the Raiders are due for one of those “how did they win that?” primetime games. The Cowboys’ defense has leaked oil for weeks, and Ashton Jeanty could be the one to rip them open. Still, expect fireworks: Dak and CeeDee Lamb will get theirs, but so will Vegas’ ground game.

The Pick: Raiders +3
Parlay: Ashton Jeanty Anytime TD, CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD, Raiders +3. +600.

This one smells like a 27-26 nail-biter under the Vegas lights.

NFL Week 11 wraps up tonight with an intriguing matchup in Las Vegas between the Cowboys and Raiders – and I’m rolling with America’s Team.

 

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

The line currently sits at three points in favor of Dallas at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, and that feels right. This Cowboys team has too much talent to let this one stay close for long. The Raiders have struggled all season to find consistency, whether it’s moving the ball, finishing drives, or simply putting points on the board. There’s just too much unpredictability with this team, and not the kind that usually wins games against a revamped defense like this.

Dallas has the offensive weapons to make this one get out of hand if they stay efficient. They can spread the field, create mismatches, and force the Raiders to play catch-up early. Once that happens, this game shifts into the Cowboys’ comfort zone: letting their pass rush tee off and their defense dictate tempo.

The Raiders’ defense has had flashes, but they haven’t shown they can hold up against an attack with this much firepower. Unless Pete delivers something unexpected, it’s hard to see a path where Las Vegas keeps pace.

Dallas should handle business here as the favorite – build a lead, stay aggressive, and close it out with authority.

The Pick: Cowboys win and cover the 3-point spread.

We were finally able to pick a winner on a Monday night with Eagles over Packers last week. This time around? Not so easy. Dallas heads into Vegas laying three points against the Raiders, and we’re split. One of us is leaning into the star on the helmet, the other’s hunting for an upset on prime time.

Cowherd: Dallas is Built for This Spot

When I watch the Cowboys, I see structure. I see a team that’s gotten past its early-season wobble and settled into what they are – fast, organized, physical, and decisive. Dak Prescott has quietly strung together one of the cleanest stretches of football in the league, and the offensive line is finally healthy enough to let him breathe.

It’s not always flashy, but Dallas has become the rare team that wins the way veteran teams do: controlling tempo, dominating field position, and forcing turnovers instead of praying for them.

And let’s be honest: the Raiders don’t have an identity right now. The Pete Carroll experiment – and yes, it’s still weird to say “Pete Carroll, Raiders coach” – feels like it’s missing a gear. They’ve got young talent, sure, but it’s all over the map. Jeanty’s shown flashes, Geno’s been up and down, and the defense looks like it’s still stuck in preseason mode.

This is one of those classic spots where good coaching, a top-five quarterback, and a pass rush that gets home make all the difference. Dallas doesn’t need style points here. They just need to be themselves – efficient, aggressive, and mistake-free.

Give me the Cowboys to win and cover. Vegas can hang for a half, but over four quarters, the better roster pulls away.

Middlekauff: The Case for the Raiders – Barely

I get why Colin likes Dallas. Everyone does. Which is exactly why I don’t.

We’ve seen this movie before: a primetime Cowboys game, big buildup, everyone leans in on the favorite, and then suddenly it’s the middle of the third quarter and the underdog is hanging around. I’m not saying the Raiders are better – they’re not – but these Monday night games have a funny way of turning messy.

Maybe it’s the short week for Dallas, maybe it’s the travel, maybe it’s just the league’s parody finally catching up – but I’ll take the points and hope Pete Carroll’s got one trick left. This feels like a “backs-against-the-wall” week for him. They’ve been embarrassed twice in a row, the home crowd will be loud, and if Jeanty can get going, they can make this ugly.

And if there’s one thing Dallas doesn’t love, it’s ugly. They want rhythm. They want structure. Break that up, and suddenly Dak starts forcing throws, Schotty gets conservative, and the Cowboys start settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.

So yeah. I’ll take the Raiders. Not because I love them, but because Monday nights can be wild, and wild is usually good for the dog.

Cowboys at Raiders MNF Picks

Cowherd: Cowboys -3
Middlekauff: Raiders +3

Whichever way you lean, buckle up for this one.

Every week, the NFL reminds us why betting lines exist — to humble even the most confident of us. But I like where I’m sitting heading into Week 11. After crunching injuries, vibes, and some truly bizarre trends, I’ve got five plays I feel great about — plus Damonza’s teaser (which, spoiler, earns him a report card he won’t frame).

Miami (-2.5) vs. Washington — from Madrid

I initially liked Miami minus two and a half thinking the game was in Washington. When I found out it’s on a neutral field in Madrid, I loved it even more.

Washington is simply too banged up — their quarterback is out, half a dozen defensive starters are missing, and they look like one of the softest spots in football right now. Meanwhile, Miami suddenly has sneaky good vibes again.

Yes, Tua’s struggled overseas, but one of those games was against the Chiefs — I’m throwing that one out. If you’re giving me Miami under a field goal against a depleted Commanders team, I’m all in.

• The pick: Miami -2.5 (Madrid)

Chicago (+3) at Minnesota

I thought Minnesota had chances against the Ravens but didn’t capitalize. Chicago, on the other hand, looks like it can score on anyone. I like this Bears offense in a dome and think they can win outright on the moneyline.

• The pick: Chicago +3 at Minnesota

Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Buffalo

I’m sorry, but Buffalo shouldn’t be laying more than a field goal against any team that has its act together — and Tampa does.

This might be the first week all season Tampa’s actually healthier than its opponent. They could get Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin back, while Buffalo’s injury list reads like a CVS receipt.

I don’t need the Bucs to win outright — though they could — just to hang around and cover the spread. They’re the healthier team, and Buffalo still looks like it’s doing some soul-searching.

• The pick: Tampa Bay +5.5 at Buffalo

San Francisco (-2.5) at Arizona

This one makes me a little nervous, because Kyle Shanahan has historically struggled covering against Arizona. But this is about timing.

Arizona is a mess — fresh off getting demolished — and San Francisco knows these are the games you can’t let slip if you’re chasing a playoff spot. They should have Brock Purdy back, and while I don’t think the gap between Purdy and Mac Jones is massive, it’s enough to steady things.

I love that I’m not laying the hook at three. Give me the Niners to control this one and win by a field goal.

• The pick: San Francisco -2.5 at Arizona

Kansas City (-3.5) at Denver

If you got this line when it opened at -3, congratulations — but even at -3.5, I’ll take the Chiefs.

I just don’t think Bo Nix can get this Denver offense past 17 points. The only question: can Kansas City score 21? Against this Broncos defense, yes — they can.

The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, and Denver still isn’t.

• The pick: Kansas City -3.5 at Denver

Nick’s Week 11 Card

• Miami -2.5 (vs. Washington, in Madrid)
• Chicago +3 (at Minnesota)
• Tampa Bay +5.5 (at Buffalo)
• San Francisco -2.5 (at Arizona)
• Kansas City -3.5 (at Denver)

Damonza’s Week 11 Teaser: The Fatherhood Fumble

Damonza’s first teaser as a new dad comes with all the love in the world… and an F grade from me.

He’s teasing through zero, ignoring key numbers — classic “baby brain” mistakes. Here’s what he’s rolling with:

• Texans +1.5
• Dolphins +5.5
• Buccaneers +13.5

I’m rooting for you, my friend, but as a betting analyst — fair’s fair. That’s an F. We’ll call it fatherhood rust.

Touchdown Genie Parlay

Last week, I told you Kyle Monangai would score. He did. We’re still undefeated lifetime on Touchdown Genie picks.

This week, I’m going big with a Touchdown Genie Parlay — Josh Jacobs and Christian McCaffrey both to score, -122. Simple, powerful, cash it in.

Bonus Pick: Quarterback Chaos

The “group” offered me one more: Trevor Lawrence and Jameis Winston both to throw a pick, around +140. Two former No. 1 overall picks, two interceptions. Sadly, I’ll take it.

The NFL season’s slogging through the dog days, but if you dig deep enough, there’s still money to be made. Good matchups are rare, quarterbacks are mediocre, and offenses are broken – but that’s when sharp bettors thrive.

Here’s how I see this weekend shaking out: my three best bets brought to you by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

49ers (-3) at Cardinals

Brock Purdy’s back, and that alone should give the Niners a spark. The defense is held together by duct tape, but the Cardinals are an even bigger disaster. They’re missing corners, linemen, and their defensive front can’t stop anyone.

Arizona’s offense? One read and panic. McBride might get 12 targets because there’s no one else left standing. The Niners’ offense has been rolling behind their backup, and plugging Purdy back in should keep it humming – rust or not.

San Francisco’s too talented, Arizona’s too banged up. Don’t overthink it – back the road favorite.

Seahawks (+3) at Rams

This one’s about secondaries. The Rams can’t cover anybody; the Seahawks can. That’s the whole handicap. Seattle’s corners are healthy again, they can rush with four, and that should let them hang tight against Stafford and Puka.

McVay’s offense is creative, but that Rams defense is living off reputation. The Seahawks have been better on the road than at home under Mike Macdonald, and they travel well.

This might look like a toss-up, but Seattle’s the sharper side. I like the road underdog to keep rolling.

Lions (+2.5) at Eagles

The Eagles might be winning, but they look lost doing it. Their offense is lifeless, the line’s banged up, and they lead the league in three-and-outs. Dan Campbell, on the other hand, just took over play-calling and gave his guys a jolt.

Detroit started throwing early, got creative, and the vibe flipped instantly. Sure, that came against the Washington tire fire, but momentum’s momentum. Campbell’s players clearly respond to him, and that matters.

Philly’s due for a clunker, and if Goff can stay upright outdoors, the Lions can absolutely steal this one.